Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera Division - Group 12 2009/2010

Mensajero

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Fuerteventura play Mensajero in the Tercera Division - Group 12 2009/2010. It looks like a close match. Recently, Fuerteventura averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.97 conceded. Mensajero averaged 1.66 goals scored and 0.89 conceded. In past meetings, Fuerteventura won 0, Mensajero won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 23, 2009 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.92 for Fuerteventura and 1.43 for Mensajero. This points to a Mensajero double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%

Fuerteventura

22%

Draws

52%

Mensajero

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Mensajero

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence

Fuerteventura picked up more points recently compared to Mensajero.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.92 vs 1.43 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 47%

Over 3.5 Goals 28%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%

Fuerteventura Clean Sheet 17%

Mensajero Clean Sheet 16%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Fuerteventura	Mensajero
Matches Played	30	44
Wins	7	26
Draws	7	9
Losses	16	9
Goals Scored	1.03	1.66
Goals Conceded	1.97	0.89

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 23, 2009 Tercera RFEF - Group 12

Fuerteventura vs Mensajero

Possession: 42% - 43% Cards: 2 - 3

1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fuerteventura 27 / 100

Mensajero 50 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Fuerteventura Mensajero

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mensajero or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +44.6%

5.56

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.7%

2.44

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Fuerteventura attacking → ← attacking Mensajero

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fuerteventura scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Mensajero let in goals in 48% of their last 44 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Fuerteventura went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Mensajero lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

28 Points in last 5 87

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.75

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Corralejo	41	21	16	4	56:25	79
2	Las Palmas B	41	20	14	7	67:38	74
3	Pajara Playas	41	21	11	9	64:36	74
4	CD Marino	41	19	13	9	65:39	70
5	Mensajero	41	17	17	7	59:36	68
6	Atletico Granadilla	41	19	11	11	55:48	68
7	Villa Santa Brigida	41	15	15	11	42:29	60
8	UD Realejos	41	15	11	15	45:43	56
9	AD Huracan	41	14	13	14	42:40	55
10	SD Tenisca	41	16	7	18	55:47	55
11	Tijarafe	41	12	16	13	51:53	52
12	Castillo CF	41	11	17	13	46:50	50
13	Orientacion Maritima	41	12	14	15	44:55	50
14	Teror	41	12	13	16	46:53	49
15	CD Laguna	41	12	11	18	41:54	47
16	Las Zocas	41	11	14	16	38:53	47
17	Victoria CD	41	10	17	14	37:44	47
18	CD Charco Del Pino	41	10	16	15	39:50	46
19	Galdar	41	9	13	19	34:62	40
20	Los Llanos	41	7	15	19	33:58	36
21	Univ. Las Palmas B	41	7	11	23	44:73	32
22	Fuerteventura	21	5	7	9	23:40	22