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Gabala vs Karvan

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 Qäbälä Şähär Stadionu, Gabala
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Barker I.
34'
Sub
Sissoko S. In: Akinade I.
Out: Sissoko S.
35'
Goncalves Mateus P. L.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Gabala
20%
Draws
51%
Karvan
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Karvan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Gabala lately — more wins on the board than Karvan.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Karvan taking it.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Gabala Clean Sheet 24%
Karvan Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gabala Karvan
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 5
Draws 6 5
Losses 16 20
Goals Scored 1.07 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 Premier League
Karvan vs Gabala
1:2
Feb 28, 2026 Premier League
Gabala vs Karvan
1:1
Aug 15, 2025 Premier League
Karvan vs Gabala
1:1
May 2, 2025 I Liqa
Karvan vs Gabala
2:0
Feb 28, 2025 I Liqa
Gabala vs Karvan
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gabala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Karvan Compare

Top Goalscorer Barker I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gabala 21 / 100
Karvan 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gabala Karvan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Karvan Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Karvan conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Gabala scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Gabala stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Gabala VS Karvan
1.13 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Gabala

(Home)
18 Sept
Gabala
0 : 3
Neftci Baku
12 Sept
Kapaz
1 : 0
Gabala
04 Sept
Gabala
2 : 1
Imisli FK
29 Aug
Gabala
0 : 0
Shamakhi
22 Aug
Gabala
0 : 1
Safa Baku
Page 1 of 6

Karvan

(Away)
16 Sept
Karvan
3 : 0
Zaqatala PFK
09 Sept
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0
Karvan
03 Sept
Baku Sporting
0 : 3
Karvan
24 May
Imisli FK
1 : 1
Karvan
15 May
Karvan
1 : 2
Gabala
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sabah Baku 33 24 6 3 75:25 78
2 Qarabag Agdam 33 21 6 6 71:27 69
3 Turan 33 17 8 8 44:27 59
4 Neftci Baku 33 16 11 6 57:32 59
5 Zira FK 33 13 14 6 43:36 53
6 Araz PFK 33 13 7 13 44:58 46
7 SumQayit FK 33 12 5 16 45:49 41
8 Shamakhi 33 9 11 13 31:40 38
9 Imisli FK 33 7 13 13 23:43 34
10 Kapaz 33 8 3 22 25:61 27
11 Gabala 33 7 6 20 32:49 27
12 Karvan 33 3 6 24 23:66 15
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)