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Gabala vs Karvan

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 Qäbälä Şähär Stadionu, Gabala
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Barker I.
34'
Sub
Sissoko S. In: Akinade I.
Out: Sissoko S.
35'
Goncalves Mateus P. L.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Gabala
6%
Draws
4%
Karvan
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Gabala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Gabala lately — more wins on the board than Karvan.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Gabala taking it.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Gabala Clean Sheet 68%
Karvan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gabala Karvan
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 3
Draws 5 5
Losses 15 22
Goals Scored 0.88 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.38 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 Premier League
Karvan vs Gabala
1:2
Feb 28, 2026 Premier League
Gabala vs Karvan
1:1
Aug 15, 2025 Premier League
Karvan vs Gabala
1:1
May 2, 2025 I Liqa
Karvan vs Gabala
2:0
Feb 28, 2025 I Liqa
Gabala vs Karvan
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gabala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Karvan Compare

Top Goalscorer Barker I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gabala 95 / 100
Karvan 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gabala Karvan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GAB Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Karvan conceded in 93% of 30 recent games.

Gabala's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Gabala stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Gabala VS Karvan
0.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Gabala

(Home)
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
21 May
Gabala
3 : 1
Shamakhi
15 May
Karvan
1 : 2
Gabala
09 May
Gabala
1 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
03 May
Zira FK
1 : 0
Gabala
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Karvan

(Away)
24 May
Imisli FK
1 : 1
Karvan
15 May
Karvan
1 : 2
Gabala
10 May
Turan
1 : 0
Karvan
05 May
Karvan
0 : 3
Neftci Baku
27 Apr
Sabah Baku
2 : 0
Karvan
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sabah Baku33246375:2578
2Qarabag Agdam33216671:2769
3Turan33178844:2759
4Neftci Baku331611657:3259
5Zira FK331314643:3653
6Araz PFK331371344:5846
7SumQayit FK331251645:4941
8Shamakhi339111331:4038
9Imisli FK337131323:4334
10Kapaz33832225:6127
11Gabala33762032:4927
12Karvan33362423:6615
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)