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Gabala vs Mingachevir

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan Cup Qäbälä Şähär Stadionu, Gabala
Gabala Logo

Gabala

5 - 1
FT
Mingachevir Logo

Mingachevir

Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Massoumou D. J.
49' Event
Owusu P.
54' Event
Owusu P.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 5-1. The second leg ended 5-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Gabala
15%
Draws
40%
Mingachevir
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gabala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Mingachevir carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Mingachevir arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Gabala, who have won 4 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Gabala have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Gabala Clean Sheet 10%
Mingachevir Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gabala Mingachevir
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 16
Draws 5 6
Losses 15 8
Goals Scored 1.3 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 28, 2026 Premier League
Gabala vs Mingachevir
2:0
Oct 29, 2025 Azerbaijan Cup
Gabala vs Mingachevir
5:1
Mar 28, 2025 I Liqa
Gabala vs Mingachevir
2:0
Dec 24, 2024 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Gabala
0:2
Sep 26, 2024 I Liqa
Gabala vs Mingachevir
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gabala Compare

Top Goalscorer Owusu P.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Massoumou D. J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Mingachevir Compare

Top Goalscorer Attuquaye J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gabala 30 / 100
Mingachevir 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gabala Mingachevir

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Gabala scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Mingachevir's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Gabala has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Gabala VS Mingachevir
1 Goals Scored 2.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Gabala

(Home)
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
21 May
Gabala
3 : 1
Shamakhi
15 May
Karvan
1 : 2
Gabala
09 May
Gabala
1 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
03 May
Zira FK
1 : 0
Gabala
Page 1 of 6

Mingachevir

(Away)
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
15 May
Mingachevir
3 : 1
MOIK Baku
05 May
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0
Mingachevir
29 Apr
Mingachevir
7 : 1
Zaqatala PFK
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Sabail 0
Shamakhi 1
Goygol 0
Baku Sporting 2
Qarabag Agdam -
TBD -
Karvan 3
Sheki City 1
Lokbatan 2
Imisli FK 3
TBD -
Sabah Baku -
Gabala 5
Mingachevir 1
Cebrayil 0
Safa Baku 3
Shimal 0
Sahdag Qusar 2
Dinamo Baki 0
Turan 5
Araz PFK -
TBD -
Kapaz 6
Agstafa Gencleri 1
FC Khankendi 1
Difai Agsu 2
Zaqatala PFK 0
SumQayit FK 3
Zira FK -
TBD -
Neftci Baku 6
MOIK Baku 2
1/8-finals
Shamakhi 1
Baku Sporting 0
Qarabag Agdam 3
Karvan 0
Imisli FK 1
Sabah Baku 2
Gabala 2
Safa Baku 1
Sahdag Qusar 1
Turan 2
Araz PFK 0
Kapaz 1
Difai Agsu 1
SumQayit FK 3
Zira FK 1
Neftci Baku 0
Quarter-finals
Shamakhi 3
Qarabag Agdam 4
Sabah Baku 4
Gabala 3
Turan 3
Kapaz 0
SumQayit FK 0
Zira FK 2
Semi-finals
Qarabag Agdam 3
Sabah Baku 4
Turan 0
Zira FK 2
Final
Sabah Baku 2
Zira FK 1