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Gabala vs Neftci Baku - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League Qäbälä Şähär Stadionu, Gabala
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Breno Almeida
46'
Sub
Mahmudov E. In: Gustavo Klismahn
Out: Mahmudov E.
46'
Sub
Silva B. In: Akinade I.
Out: Silva B.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Gabala and Neftci Baku finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Neftci Baku.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Gabala
20%
Draws
57%
Neftci Baku
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Neftci Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Neftci Baku come out ahead of Gabala on wins alone.
  • Model gives Neftci Baku a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Neftci Baku have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Gabala Clean Sheet 15%
Neftci Baku Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gabala Neftci Baku
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 10 19
Draws 6 4
Losses 16 7
Goals Scored 1.13 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.47 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 18, 2026 Premier League
Gabala vs Neftci Baku
0:3
Mar 15, 2026 Premier League
Gabala vs Neftci Baku
1:3
Feb 10, 2026 Premier League
Neftci Baku vs Gabala
1:0
Oct 26, 2025 Premier League
Gabala vs Neftci Baku
0:2
Mar 29, 2024 Premier League
Gabala vs Neftci Baku
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gabala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Neftci Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Breno Almeida
1 Goals
Assists Leader Akinyemi A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gabala 10 / 100
Neftci Baku 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gabala Neftci Baku

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Neftci Baku Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Neftci Baku let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Gabala scored in 56% of their last 32 outings.

Solid form: Gabala remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Gabala VS Neftci Baku
0.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
38% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Gabala

(Home)
10 Oct
SumQayit FK
4 : 1
Gabala
18 Sept
Gabala
0 : 3
Neftci Baku
12 Sept
Kapaz
1 : 0
Gabala
04 Sept
Gabala
2 : 1
Imisli FK
29 Aug
Gabala
0 : 0
Shamakhi
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Neftci Baku

(Away)
09 Oct
Neftci Baku
0 : 0
Sabah Baku
18 Sept
Gabala
0 : 3
Neftci Baku
11 Sept
Imisli FK
2 : 3
Neftci Baku
05 Sept
Neftci Baku
4 : 1
Safa Baku
30 Aug
Zira FK
1 : 0
Neftci Baku
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Neftci Baku 7 5 1 1 18:5 16
2 Sabah Baku 6 5 1 0 14:1 16
3 Qarabag Agdam 5 4 1 0 9:4 13
4 Turan 6 3 2 1 6:4 11
5 Zira FK 7 3 2 2 8:9 11
6 Kapaz 6 3 1 2 6:7 10
7 Shamakhi 7 2 4 1 9:7 10
8 SumQayit FK 6 1 2 3 8:9 5
9 Gabala 7 1 1 5 3:11 4
10 Imisli FK 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
11 Safa Baku 6 1 0 5 2:11 3
12 Araz PFK 7 0 2 5 5:15 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2027/2028 (Main)