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Gaborone Utd vs Orapa United

Botswana Botswana

Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gaborone Utd play Orapa United in the Premier League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Gaborone Utd averaged 2.03 goals scored and 0.53 conceded. Orapa United averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Gaborone Utd won 5, Orapa United won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 10, 2026 ended 6:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.81 for Gaborone Utd and 0.88 for Orapa United. This points to a Gaborone Utd double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Gaborone Utd
19%
Draws
28%
Orapa United
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Gaborone Utd

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Gaborone Utd picked up more points recently compared to Orapa United.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.81 vs 0.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 62%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Gaborone Utd Clean Sheet 25%
Orapa United Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 56%
Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gaborone Utd Orapa United
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 22 12
Draws 5 11
Losses 3 7
Goals Scored 2.03 1.17
Goals Conceded 0.53 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 10, 2026 Premier League
Gaborone Utd vs Orapa United
6:2
Nov 8, 2025 Premier League
Orapa United vs Gaborone Utd
0:1
Apr 5, 2025 Premier League
Orapa United vs Gaborone Utd
2:3
Nov 22, 2024 Premier League
Gaborone Utd vs Orapa United
2:1
May 18, 2024 Premier League
Gaborone Utd vs Orapa United
1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gaborone Utd 53 / 100
Orapa United 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gaborone Utd Orapa United

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gaborone Utd Win (1)
Secondary Pick Gaborone Utd & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.7%
2.22
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.5%
3.23
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gaborone Utd attacking → ← attacking Orapa United

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gaborone Utd scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Orapa United let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Gaborone Utd went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Orapa United lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

71 Points in last 5 47
2.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Gaborone Utd30235262:1574
2Jwaneng Galaxy30178555:2359
3Sua Flamingoes30185744:3059
4Centre Chiefs30168637:1856
5Morupule301451141:3347
6Orapa United301211735:3047
7Township Rollers301361133:3345
8Nico United301012828:2542
9Tafic FC308111127:2635
10Matebele30891329:3733
11Police XI307111217:2932
12BDF XI30791430:4230
13Extension Gunners30781526:4329
14Black Lions30761717:3827
15Santa Green30642023:5822
16Calendar Stars30561919:4321