Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Gagra vs Iberia 1999

Georgia Georgia

Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga David Petriashvili Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gagra play Iberia 1999 in the Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga. It looks like a close match. Recently, Gagra averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. Iberia 1999 averaged 1.48 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. In past meetings, Gagra won 0, Iberia 1999 won 5, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 20, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Gagra and 1.13 for Iberia 1999. This points to a Iberia 1999 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Gagra
19%
Draws
52%
Iberia 1999
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Iberia 1999

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • Gagra picked up more points recently compared to Iberia 1999.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%
Gagra Clean Sheet 21%
Iberia 1999 Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gagra Iberia 1999
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 15
Draws 10 6
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.23 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 20, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Iberia 1999 vs Gagra
1:0
Apr 3, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Gagra vs Iberia 1999
1:2
Dec 6, 2025 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Iberia 1999 vs Gagra
2:1
Oct 3, 2025 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Gagra vs Iberia 1999
1:3
May 29, 2025 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Iberia 1999 vs Gagra
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gagra Compare

Top Goalscorer Mujiri D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Iberia 1999 Compare

Top Goalscorer Kardava B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Goshteliani G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gagra 30 / 100
Iberia 1999 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gagra Iberia 1999

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Iberia 1999 or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +38%
4.76
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gagra attacking → ← attacking Iberia 1999

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gagra scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Iberia 1999 let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Gagra went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Iberia 1999 lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 51
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Iberia 199919104527:1834
2FC Rustavi1995522:1832
3Dinamo Tbilisi1987431:2131
4Torpedo Kutaisi1976630:1927
5Dinamo Batumi1976628:3027
6Dila Gori1982921:1926
7Samgurali1974825:3225
8Spaeri1957725:2522
9Gagra1957718:2422
10Meshakhte Tkibuli19181013:3411