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Gainsborough vs Bury FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

NPL Premier Division
Our Tip

Match Events

89' Event
Sloane B.

AI Match Summary

Bury FC in this NPL Premier Division matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bury FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Gainsborough
15%
Draws
49%
Bury FC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bury FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bury FC lately — more wins on the board than Gainsborough.
  • 36% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Gainsborough Clean Sheet 10%
Bury FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gainsborough Bury FC
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 19
Draws 6 1
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1.55 2.43
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 FA Trophy
Bury FC vs Gainsborough
4:3
Aug 22, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Gainsborough vs Bury FC
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gainsborough Compare

Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Bury FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Sloane B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gainsborough 29 / 100
Bury FC 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gainsborough Bury FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gainsborough Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Gainsborough scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Bury FC conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Gainsborough stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Gainsborough VS Bury FC
2.38 Goals Scored 3.38
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Gainsborough

(Home)
10 Oct
AFC Emley
1 : 2
Gainsborough
06 Oct
Whitby
2 : 6
Gainsborough
03 Oct
Gainsborough
2 : 3
Anstey Nomads
26 Sept
Bury FC
4 : 3
Gainsborough
22 Sept
Gainsborough
3 : 0
Leamington
Page 1 of 6

Bury FC

(Away)
10 Oct
Alfreton
2 : 3
Bury FC
06 Oct
Stockton
1 : 0
Bury FC
03 Oct
Bury FC
2 : 1
Bromsgrove
26 Sept
Bury FC
4 : 3
Gainsborough
19 Sept
Bury FC
5 : 1
Workington
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cleethorpes 13 9 3 1 30:7 30
2 Redcar Athletic 13 8 4 1 28:11 28
3 Guiseley 12 8 1 3 25:11 25
4 Avro 11 8 1 2 33:20 25
5 Curzon Ashton 11 7 1 3 23:11 22
6 Workington 13 6 3 4 23:22 21
7 Warrington Rylands 13 6 2 5 20:20 20
8 Bury FC 11 6 1 4 22:11 19
9 Gainsborough 11 6 1 4 22:15 19
10 Warrington Town 11 5 4 2 22:18 19
11 Alfreton 13 6 0 7 20:16 18
12 Lancaster 13 5 2 6 18:26 17
13 Hyde 13 4 2 7 13:23 14
14 Ashton United 11 3 4 4 14:13 13
15 Quorn 12 3 4 5 21:27 13
16 Whitby 12 4 1 7 17:32 13
17 Stockton 13 3 3 7 17:24 12
18 Leek Town 12 2 5 5 24:25 11
19 AFC Emley 12 2 4 6 11:24 10
20 Bamber Bridge 12 2 4 6 16:31 10
21 Ilkeston 13 2 1 10 7:31 7
22 United of Manchester 11 1 3 7 14:22 6
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