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Gama vs Castro

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Martins C.
34' Event
Martins C.
48' Event
Vega Saenz E.

AI Match Summary

Castro in this Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Castro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Gama
20%
Draws
29%
Castro
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gama

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Castro lately — more wins on the board than Gama.
  • 51% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Gama Clean Sheet 68%
Castro Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gama Castro
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 6 11
Draws 8 8
Losses 16 14
Goals Scored 0.97 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.8 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 20, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Gama vs Castro
3:4
Dec 8, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs Gama
2:0
Jan 29, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Gama vs Castro
1:3
Sep 24, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs Gama
2:2
Mar 12, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs Gama
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gama Compare

Top Goalscorer Vega Saenz E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cantero M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Castro Compare

Top Goalscorer Martins C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Jauregui X.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.07
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gama 41 / 100
Castro 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gama Castro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gama Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Castro let in goals in 70% of their last 33 matches.

Recent resilience: Gama stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Gama found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

- VS Castro
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 1.38
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Gama

(Home)
10 May
Bezana
0 : 3
Gama
04 May
Gama
4 : 2
CD Revilla
26 Apr
CD Colindres
4 : 0
Gama
20 Apr
Gama
3 : 4
Castro
13 Apr
CD Siete Villas
1 : 3
Gama
Page 1 of 6

Castro

(Away)
13 Sept
Castro
2 : 0
Solares
06 Sept
Selaya
0 : 0
Castro
09 May
Castro
0 : 2
CD Tropezon
03 May
UC Cartes
0 : 0
Castro
26 Apr
Castro
2 : 3
Gimnastic de Torrelavega
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Samano 34 20 10 4 52:22 70
2 CD Tropezon 34 20 7 7 58:30 67
3 Atletico Albericia 34 19 7 8 64:39 64
4 Cayon CD 34 19 5 10 61:41 62
5 Castro 34 16 11 7 45:26 59
6 Vimenor 34 17 6 11 63:42 57
7 Bezana 34 15 9 10 46:41 54
8 Torina 34 14 8 12 49:44 50
9 CD Barquereno 34 13 10 11 60:59 49
10 Guarnizo 34 11 15 8 44:37 48
11 CD Revilla 34 12 6 16 46:53 42
12 CD Colindres 34 9 9 16 36:53 36
13 Gama 34 9 9 16 34:56 36
14 Atletico Mineros 34 9 8 17 33:58 35
15 Barreda Balompie 34 8 10 16 49:65 34
16 Naval Reinosa 34 9 6 19 40:59 33
17 CD Siete Villas 34 7 7 20 29:53 28
18 CD Monte 34 5 5 24 33:64 20
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2024/2025 (Play Offs)