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Gasogi United vs Al-Merreikh

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Gasogi United and Al-Merreikh finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al-Merreikh.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Gasogi United
39%
Draws
31%
Al-Merreikh
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al-Merreikh come out ahead of Gasogi United on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Gasogi United Clean Sheet 68%
Al-Merreikh Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gasogi United Al-Merreikh
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 14
Draws 8 11
Losses 15 5
Goals Scored 1.25 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 27, 2026 Premier League
Al-Merreikh vs Gasogi United
1:1
Jan 5, 2026 Premier League
Gasogi United vs Al-Merreikh
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gasogi United 41 / 100
Al-Merreikh 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gasogi United Al-Merreikh

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GAS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Al-Merreikh conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Al-Merreikh registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Gasogi United scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

Gasogi United VS Al-Merreikh
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Gasogi United

(Home)
28 May
Gasogi United
0 : 1
Police
17 May
Musanze
3 : 2
Gasogi United
13 May
Al-Hilal Omdurman
2 : 1
Gasogi United
10 May
Gasogi United
2 : 2
Etincelles
05 May
Gasogi United
3 : 1
Gicumbi
Page 1 of 6

Al-Merreikh

(Away)
31 May
Gorilla
3 : 1
Al-Merreikh
27 May
Al-Merreikh
1 : 2
APR
22 May
Al-Merreikh
1 : 1
Al-Hilal Omdurman
17 May
Amagaju
1 : 0
Al-Merreikh
10 May
Al-Merreikh
0 : 1
Kiyovu
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al-Hilal Omdurman34236574:2575
2APR341911450:2868
3Al-Merreikh341611741:2459
4Rayon Sport341414640:3056
5Kiyovu341314734:2153
6Police341216629:1952
7Mukura Victory Sports3412111136:3847
8Marines341291347:4345
9Bugesera341281434:3944
10Musanze3411101338:3743
11Gorilla3410101431:4240
12Gicumbi341081638:5438
13Etincelles347161132:4037
14AS Kigali348111527:3935
15Gasogi United348111529:4435
16Amagaju34981719:3835
17Muhanga34871925:4631
18Rutsiro346111730:4729
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2026/2027 (Qualification)