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Gasogi United vs Bugesera - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gasogi United host Bugesera in the Premier League. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Gasogi United at 0.69 goals for, 1.52 against; Bugesera at 1.07 for, 1.31 against. Head-to-head, Gasogi United have won 0 to Bugesera's 2, with 3 draws. They last met on Mar 14, 2026, ending 0:1. Model xG sits at 1.50 vs 1.13, favoring Bugesera. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Gasogi United
20%
Draws
64%
Bugesera
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bugesera

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Bugesera have won more games recently than Gasogi United.
  • 64% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Gasogi United Clean Sheet 20%
Bugesera Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gasogi United Bugesera
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 11
Draws 8 4
Losses 16 14
Goals Scored 0.69 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Premier League
Gasogi United vs Bugesera
0:1
Oct 18, 2025 Premier League
Bugesera vs Gasogi United
0:0
Feb 15, 2025 Premier League
Gasogi United vs Bugesera
2:2
Sep 27, 2024 Premier League
Bugesera vs Gasogi United
0:0
Feb 11, 2024 Premier League
Gasogi United vs Bugesera
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gasogi United 32 / 100
Bugesera 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gasogi United Bugesera

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bugesera Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bugesera let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Bugesera lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Gasogi United found the back of the net in 45% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Gasogi United VS Bugesera
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Gasogi United

(Home)
06 Sept
Mukura Victory Sports
2 : 0
Gasogi United
28 May
Gasogi United
0 : 1
Police
17 May
Musanze
3 : 2
Gasogi United
13 May
Al Hilal Omdurman
2 : 1
Gasogi United
10 May
Gasogi United
2 : 2
Etincelles
Page 1 of 6

Bugesera

(Away)
15 Sept
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Bugesera
30 May
Rutsiro
0 : 2
Bugesera
26 May
Rayon Sport
2 : 0
Bugesera
16 May
Mukura Victory Sports
2 : 2
Bugesera
09 May
Gicumbi
2 : 1
Bugesera
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gicumbi 3 3 0 0 5:2 9
2 Etincelles 3 2 1 0 2:0 7
3 Amagaju 3 1 1 1 2:1 4
4 APR 1 1 0 0 4:2 3
5 Al Hilal Omdurman 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
6 Mukura Victory Sports 2 1 0 1 2:1 3
7 Marines 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
8 Police 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
9 Musanze 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
10 Gorilla 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
11 Kiyovu 3 1 0 2 1:2 3
12 Sunrise 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
13 Rayon Sport 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
14 Al Merreikh 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
15 Etoile de L'Est 3 0 1 2 1:4 1
16 Kigali FC 3 0 1 2 0:4 1
17 Bugesera 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
18 Gasogi United 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)