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GD Alcochetense vs Oriental

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Joca
71' Event
Mucuana Lobo E. J.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
GD Alcochetense
30%
Draws
23%
Oriental
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: GD Alcochetense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Oriental haven't matched GD Alcochetense's recent run of results.
  • GD Alcochetense are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
GD Alcochetense Clean Sheet 68%
Oriental Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric GD Alcochetense Oriental
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 8 11
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.17 1.1
Goals Conceded 1 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
GD Alcochetense vs Oriental
1:1
Dec 14, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Oriental vs GD Alcochetense
0:3
Aug 31, 2025 Taça de Portugal
Oriental vs GD Alcochetense
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

GD Alcochetense Compare

Top Goalscorer Joca
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Oriental Compare

Top Goalscorer Mucuana Lobo E. J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GD Alcochetense 77 / 100
Oriental 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
GD Alcochetense Oriental

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

GD Alcochetense scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Oriental conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.67 goals per match.

GD Alcochetense went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

GD Alcochetense VS Oriental
1 Goals Scored 0.88
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

GD Alcochetense

(Home)
18 Apr
Lagoa
1 : 2
GD Alcochetense
12 Apr
GD Alcochetense
1 : 1
Oriental
04 Apr
Alverca B
0 : 1
GD Alcochetense
28 Mar
GD Alcochetense
0 : 1
Louletano
22 Mar
GD Alcochetense
2 : 0
O Elvas CAD
Page 1 of 6

Oriental

(Away)
18 Apr
Oriental
2 : 1
Serpa
12 Apr
GD Alcochetense
1 : 1
Oriental
04 Apr
Oriental
0 : 2
Lagoa
22 Mar
Oriental
1 : 2
Alverca B
15 Mar
O Elvas CAD
0 : 0
Oriental
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)