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GD Os Nazarenos vs Os Marialvas

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Martins Pereira L. F.
49' Event
Sonhi Y.
56'
Magalhaes U.

AI Match Summary

Os Marialvas in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Os Marialvas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
GD Os Nazarenos
15%
Draws
85%
Os Marialvas
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Os Marialvas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • GD Os Nazarenos haven't matched Os Marialvas's recent run of results.
  • Os Marialvas are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 71.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
GD Os Nazarenos Clean Sheet 11%
Os Marialvas Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric GD Os Nazarenos Os Marialvas
Matches Played 9 33
Wins 2 14
Draws 0 8
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 0.33 1.24
Goals Conceded 2.56 0.91
Expected Goals (xG) 0.47 1.80
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Os Nazarenos vs Os Marialvas
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

GD Os Nazarenos Compare

Avg xG / game 0.36
Avg xA / game 0.23

Os Marialvas Compare

Top Goalscorer Martins Pereira L. F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sonhi Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GD Os Nazarenos 10 / 100
Os Marialvas 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
GD Os Nazarenos Os Marialvas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Os Marialvas Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Os Marialvas's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 33 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

GD Os Nazarenos found the back of the net in 33% of recent matches (9 games).

Os Marialvas lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

GD Os Nazarenos VS Os Marialvas
0.2 Goals Scored 1
2.6 Goals Conceded 0.75
80% Over 1.5 63%
80% Over 2.5 13%
20% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

GD Os Nazarenos

(Home)
13 Sept
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 3
Os Marialvas
06 Sept
Malveira
3 : 0
GD Os Nazarenos
30 Aug
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 3
Vitoria Sernache
23 Aug
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 1
O Elvas CAD
16 Aug
Mortagua FC
3 : 1
GD Os Nazarenos
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Os Marialvas

(Away)
20 Sept
UD Ovarense
0 : 1
Os Marialvas
13 Sept
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 3
Os Marialvas
06 Sept
Os Marialvas
3 : 0
Fatima
30 Aug
Fornos de Algodres
0 : 4
Os Marialvas
23 Aug
Os Marialvas
1 : 2
Oliveira Hospital
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mortagua FC 4 3 1 0 9:4 10
2 Oliveira Hospital 4 3 0 1 6:4 9
3 Os Marialvas 4 3 0 1 8:2 9
4 Uniao Da Serra 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
5 O Elvas CAD 3 2 1 0 4:2 7
6 Naval 1893 4 2 0 2 6:4 6
7 Nogueirense 4 1 3 0 8:7 6
8 SB Castelo Branco 4 2 0 2 7:9 6
9 Fatima 4 1 1 2 6:5 4
10 Malveira 4 1 1 2 4:7 4
11 Sertanense 3 0 2 1 3:5 2
12 Fazendense 3 0 1 2 5:7 1
13 Alverca B 3 0 0 3 1:4 0
14 GD Os Nazarenos 4 0 0 4 1:10 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)