Sport Picks

Stadium Background

GD Peniche vs Fatima

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

66' Event
Marques M.
73' Event
Oliveira L. J.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
GD Peniche
15%
Draws
59%
Fatima
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Fatima

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to GD Peniche lately — more wins on the board than Fatima.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Fatima taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
GD Peniche Clean Sheet 17%
Fatima Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric GD Peniche Fatima
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 8
Draws 7 8
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.38 0.75
Goals Conceded 2 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs Fatima
1:1
Sep 28, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Fatima vs GD Peniche
3:1
Feb 2, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs Fatima
0:1
Sep 15, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Fatima vs GD Peniche
0:1
Mar 24, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs Fatima
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

GD Peniche Compare

Top Goalscorer Marques M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Fatima Compare

Top Goalscorer Oliveira L. J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GD Peniche 20 / 100
Fatima 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
GD Peniche Fatima

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FAT Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

GD Peniche found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Fatima conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

GD Peniche has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

GD Peniche VS Fatima
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

GD Peniche

(Home)
18 Apr
GD Peniche
5 : 1
SC Lusitania
12 Apr
Uniao Da Serra
3 : 1
GD Peniche
04 Apr
GD Peniche
0 : 2
SB Castelo Branco
29 Mar
Samora Correia
5 : 2
GD Peniche
22 Mar
Electrico FC
4 : 2
GD Peniche
Page 1 of 6

Fatima

(Away)
18 Apr
Fatima
4 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
12 Apr
Electrico FC
0 : 3
Fatima
04 Apr
Fatima
2 : 2
Vitoria Sernache
29 Mar
Fatima
0 : 2
Oliveira Hospital
22 Mar
Os Marialvas
2 : 0
Fatima
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)