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GD Peniche vs SB Castelo Branco Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
GD Peniche Logo

GD Peniche

0 - 2
FT
SB Castelo Branco Logo

SB Castelo Branco

Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Almeida Pinto C. P.
90' Event
Gaspar N.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

SB Castelo Branco in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored SB Castelo Branco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
GD Peniche
15%
Draws
57%
SB Castelo Branco
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: SB Castelo Branco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to SB Castelo Branco lately — more wins on the board than GD Peniche.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
GD Peniche Clean Sheet 12%
SB Castelo Branco Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric GD Peniche SB Castelo Branco
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 16
Draws 7 3
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 1.57 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.7 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.72
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs SB Castelo Branco
0:2
Dec 7, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SB Castelo Branco vs GD Peniche
5:0
Mar 16, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs SB Castelo Branco
1:1
Nov 30, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SB Castelo Branco vs GD Peniche
0:1
Apr 7, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs SB Castelo Branco
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

GD Peniche Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

SB Castelo Branco Compare

Top Goalscorer Almeida Pinto C. P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gaspar N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.56
Avg xA / game 0.96

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GD Peniche 30 / 100
SB Castelo Branco 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
GD Peniche SB Castelo Branco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

GD Peniche scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

SB Castelo Branco's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

SB Castelo Branco lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

GD Peniche VS SB Castelo Branco
1.86 Goals Scored 1
2.43 Goals Conceded 1.13
86% Over 1.5 75%
71% Over 2.5 25%
71% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

GD Peniche

(Home)
18 Apr
GD Peniche
5 : 1
SC Lusitania
12 Apr
Uniao Da Serra
3 : 1
GD Peniche
04 Apr
GD Peniche
0 : 2
SB Castelo Branco
29 Mar
Samora Correia
5 : 2
GD Peniche
22 Mar
Electrico FC
4 : 2
GD Peniche
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SB Castelo Branco

(Away)
13 Sept
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 3
Nogueirense
06 Sept
Alverca B
0 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
29 Aug
Fatima
3 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 4
Naval 1893
16 Aug
Oliveira Hospital
2 : 3
SB Castelo Branco
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)