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GEL vs Serra

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Capixaba 2009
GEL Logo

GEL

2 - 1
FT
Serra Logo

Serra

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

GEL in this Campeonato Capixaba 2009 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored GEL.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
GEL
20%
Draws
7%
Serra
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: GEL

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Serra lately — more wins on the board than GEL.
  • Model gives GEL a 73% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Serra have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
GEL Clean Sheet 20%
Serra Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric GEL Serra
Matches Played 32 44
Wins 6 24
Draws 7 5
Losses 19 15
Goals Scored 0.88 1.91
Goals Conceded 2.47 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2025 Capixaba 2
GEL vs Serra
1:9
May 2, 2009 Capixaba
GEL vs Serra
2:1
Mar 6, 2009 Capixaba
Serra vs GEL
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GEL 85 / 100
Serra 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
GEL Serra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GEL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 6.00 goals when they meet.

Serra's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 44 matches.

Solid form: GEL remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Away concern: Serra has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

GEL VS Serra
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

GEL

(Home)
29 Aug
GEL
0 : 1
Audax Sao Mateus
26 Aug
Linhares Futebol Clube
0 : 1
GEL
18 Aug
Doze Futebol Clube
1 : 2
GEL
14 Aug
GEL
6 : 0
CTE Colatina
01 Aug
Audax Sao Mateus
0 : 0
GEL
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Serra

(Away)
06 Jun
Rio Branco ES
1 : 0
Serra
30 May
Serra
1 : 1
Porto Vitoria
24 May
Rio Branco-VN
1 : 0
Serra
20 May
Vitoria ES
3 : 2
Serra
09 May
Serra
2 : 3
Vilavelhense
Page 1 of 9

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SAO Mateus 18 11 3 4 28:21 36
2 Rio Branco ES 18 8 7 3 35:21 31
3 Jaguare 18 9 3 6 30:25 30
4 Vilavelhense 18 8 4 6 29:27 28
5 Linhares Futebol Clube 18 8 3 7 18:19 27
6 Desportiva Ferroviaria 18 6 4 8 26:24 22
7 Rio Bananal FC 18 6 3 9 22:26 21
8 GEL 18 6 2 10 24:33 20
9 Serra 18 5 4 9 32:39 19
10 Colatinense 18 5 3 10 25:34 18
Promotion - Campeonato Capixaba 2009 (Play Offs)