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Gela vs ACR Messina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

85'
Tuccio V.
87' Event
Flores Heatley K.

AI Match Summary

Gela in this Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gela.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Gela
35%
Draws
45%
ACR Messina
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: ACR Messina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Gela lately — more wins on the board than ACR Messina.
  • Model gives Gela a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 28%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Gela Clean Sheet 20%
ACR Messina Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gela ACR Messina
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 11 9
Draws 4 13
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.25 0.74
Goals Conceded 1.46 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Gela vs ACR Messina
1:0
Sep 21, 2025 Serie D - Group I
ACR Messina vs Gela
0:2
Mar 3, 2019 Serie D - Group I
Gela vs ACR Messina
0:1
Nov 11, 2018 Serie D - Group I
ACR Messina vs Gela
3:0
Jan 28, 2018 Serie D - Group I
Gela vs ACR Messina
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gela Compare

Top Goalscorer Flores Heatley K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

ACR Messina Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gela 36 / 100
ACR Messina 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gela ACR Messina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gela found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: ACR Messina conceded in 61% of 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

Gela has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Gela VS ACR Messina
0.75 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Gela

(Home)
13 Sept
Gela
2 : 1
Castrumfavara
06 Sept
Sambiase
2 : 1
Gela
03 May
Gelbison
1 : 0
Gela
26 Apr
Gela
1 : 1
Vibonese
19 Apr
Castrumfavara
3 : 1
Gela
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ACR Messina

(Away)
10 May
USD Ragusa
0 : 0
ACR Messina
03 May
ACR Messina
1 : 0
Milazzo
26 Apr
Igea Virtus
1 : 1
ACR Messina
19 Apr
Lamezia
1 : 1
ACR Messina
12 Apr
ACR Messina
1 : 0
USD Ragusa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)