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Gela vs AS Acireale Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Petta A.
54' Event
Flores Heatley K.
69' Event
Flores Heatley K.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 game between Gela and AS Acireale finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gela.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Gela
30%
Draws
23%
AS Acireale
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gela

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • AS Acireale haven't matched Gela's recent run of results.
  • 47% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Gela Clean Sheet 68%
AS Acireale Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gela AS Acireale
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 7
Draws 5 11
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1.13 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Gela vs AS Acireale
3:1
Oct 12, 2025 Serie D - Group I
AS Acireale vs Gela
2:1
Apr 18, 2019 Serie D - Group I
Gela vs AS Acireale
4:0
Dec 12, 2018 Serie D - Group I
AS Acireale vs Gela
2:1
May 6, 2018 Serie D - Group I
Gela vs AS Acireale
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gela Compare

Top Goalscorer Flores Heatley K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Petta A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

AS Acireale Compare

Top Goalscorer Cozza W.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gela 41 / 100
AS Acireale 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gela AS Acireale

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gela Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AS Acireale has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Gela scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

AS Acireale lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Gela VS AS Acireale
0.88 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Gela

(Home)
27 Sept
Digiesse PraiaTortora
1 : 0
Gela
20 Sept
Gela
0 : 0
Enna
16 Sept
Siracusa
2 : 1
Gela
13 Sept
Gela
2 : 1
Castrumfavara
06 Sept
Sambiase
2 : 1
Gela
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AS Acireale

(Away)
10 May
Vibonese
1 : 0
AS Acireale
03 May
Vibonese
1 : 0
AS Acireale
26 Apr
AS Acireale
0 : 0
USD Ragusa
19 Apr
Gelbison
2 : 1
AS Acireale
12 Apr
AS Acireale
0 : 0
Nissa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)