Sport Picks
Match Events
54'
54'
Burzio P.
77'
77'
Croce A.
85'
85'
Setola C.
AI Match Summary
Gelbison in this Coppa Italia Serie D 2024/2025 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
42%
20%
38%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gelbison
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
38%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Gelbison lately — more wins on the board than Matera.
- Model gives Matera a 38% chance of winning this.
- Gelbison have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Gelbison, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Gelbison Clean Sheet 27%
Matera Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Gelbison | Matera |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 16 | 10 |
| Draws | 6 | 10 |
| Losses | 9 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.26 | 1.47 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.6 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.42 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 6, 2024 Coppa Italia Serie D
Gelbison vs Matera
2:1
Mar 10, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Gelbison vs Matera
2:2
Nov 1, 2023 Serie D - Group H
Matera vs Gelbison
1:0
Mar 9, 2014 Serie D - Group H
Gelbison vs Matera
1:1
Oct 27, 2013 Serie D - Group H
Matera vs Gelbison
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Gelbison Compare
Top Goalscorer Croce A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Setola C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71
Matera Compare
Top Goalscorer Burzio P.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Gelbison 25 / 100
Matera 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Gelbison Matera
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MAT Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Matera conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.
Gelbison scored in 74% of their last 31 games.
Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.
Solid form: Gelbison remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Gelbison VS -
1.63 Goals Scored 0
0.5 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Gelbison
(Home) 11 Aug
Nocerina
3 : 0 Gelbison
10 May
Nissa
4 : 0 Gelbison
03 May
Gelbison
1 : 0 Gela
26 Apr
Enna
0 : 1 Gelbison
19 Apr
Gelbison
2 : 1 AS Acireale
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03 May
Gelbison
1 : 0 Gela
19 Apr
Gelbison
2 : 1 AS Acireale
02 Apr
Gelbison
2 : 1 Athletic Palermo
22 Mar
Gelbison
1 : 1 Igea Virtus
01 Mar
Gelbison
1 : 1 Lamezia
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Matera
(Away) 04 May
Matera
2 : 2 Nocerina
27 Apr
ASD Ugento
1 : 4 Matera
17 Apr
Matera
3 : 1 Angri
13 Apr
Matera
2 : 2 Virtus Francavilla
06 Apr
Costa Amalfi
4 : 2 Matera
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27 Apr
ASD Ugento
1 : 4 Matera
06 Apr
Costa Amalfi
4 : 2 Matera
23 Mar
Citta di Fasano
6 : 1 Matera
02 Mar
Martina Calcio
1 : 0 Matera
16 Feb
Casarano
5 : 0 Matera
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Imperia Calcio 0
Vado 1
Saluzzo 3
Chisola 0
Lavagnese 3
Bra 1
Brusaporto 1
Sangiuliano City 2
Club Milano 2
NovaRomentin 0
Sant'Angelo 3
Varese FC 0
Oltrepo 0
Piacenza 2
Villa Valle 1
Real Calepina 0
Vigasio 0
Pro Palazzolo 1
Cjarlins Muzane 2
Montecchio Maggiore 0
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2
Campodarsego 1
Adriese 2
Mestre 1
Cittadella Vis Modena 0
Lentigione 2
Ravenna 3
Fossombrone 1
Sambenedettese 1
Vigor Senigallia 2
Castelfidardo 4
Civitanovese Calcio 1
Livorno 3
Ghiviborgo 1
Seravezza Pozzi 2
San Donato Tavarnelle 1
Figline 1
Sangiovannese 2
Follonica Gavorrano 1
Sporting Trestina 0
Atl. Lodigiani 0
Roma City 3
Aquila Calcio 1
Termoli 0
Ostiamare 1
Sarrabus Ogliastra 2
Guidonia 1937 1
Cassino 0
Paganese 1
Scafatese 2
Nocerina 1
Ischia 2
Virtus Francavilla 0
Martina Calcio 1
Fidelis Andria 2
Casarano 3
Gelbison 2
Matera 1
Reggina 2
AS Acireale 1
Akragas 0
Enna 2
Siracusa 3
Paterno 0
1/16-finals
Vado 0
Saluzzo 1
Lavagnese 2
Sangiuliano City 1
Club Milano 1
Sant'Angelo 2
Piacenza 2
Villa Valle 1
Pro Palazzolo 1
Cjarlins Muzane 2
Dolomiti Bellunesi 4
Adriese 3
Lentigione 0
Ravenna 1
Vigor Senigallia 1
Castelfidardo 2
Livorno 3
Seravezza Pozzi 0
Sangiovannese 1
Follonica Gavorrano 2
Roma City 0
Aquila Calcio 1
Sarrabus Ogliastra 1
Guidonia 1937 2
Scafatese 6
Ischia 0
Martina Calcio 1
Casarano 0
Gelbison 1
Reggina 3
Enna 3
Siracusa 2
1/8-finals
Saluzzo 0
Lavagnese 2
Sant'Angelo 0
Piacenza 3
Cjarlins Muzane 3
Dolomiti Bellunesi 0
Ravenna 2
Castelfidardo 1
Livorno 2
Follonica Gavorrano 1
Aquila Calcio 0
Guidonia 1937 4
Scafatese 0
Martina Calcio 1
Reggina 1
Enna 2
Quarter-finals
Lavagnese 2
Piacenza 1
Cjarlins Muzane 2
Ravenna 3
Livorno 2
Guidonia 1937 3
Martina Calcio 1
Enna 0
Semi-finals
Lavagnese 1
Ravenna 3
Guidonia 1937 5
Martina Calcio 0
Final
Ravenna 3
Guidonia 1937 2
