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Stadium Background

Gelbison vs Roccella

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2020/2021
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Sparacello C.
26' Event
Maiorano G.
75' Event
Mesina A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2020/2021 game between Gelbison and Roccella finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gelbison.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Gelbison
20%
Draws
29%
Roccella
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gelbison

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Gelbison come out ahead of Roccella on wins alone.
  • Model gives Gelbison a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Gelbison here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Gelbison Clean Sheet 20%
Roccella Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gelbison Roccella
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 18 5
Draws 5 5
Losses 8 20
Goals Scored 1.45 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.54 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 13, 2021 Serie D - Group I
Gelbison vs Roccella
4:0
Mar 24, 2021 Serie D - Group I
Roccella vs Gelbison
0:1
Feb 11, 2018 Serie D - Group I
Gelbison vs Roccella
2:1
Oct 8, 2017 Serie D - Group I
Roccella vs Gelbison
0:1
Jan 31, 2016 Serie D - Group I
Gelbison vs Roccella
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gelbison Compare

Top Goalscorer Sparacello C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Maiorano G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.77

Roccella Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gelbison 85 / 100
Roccella 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gelbison Roccella

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gelbison Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gelbison's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Roccella's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Gelbison remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Gelbison VS -
1.88 Goals Scored 0
0.63 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Gelbison

(Home)
27 Sept
Paganese
2 : 3
Gelbison
20 Sept
Sarnese
3 : 1
Gelbison
16 Sept
Gelbison
2 : 1
Budoni Calcio
13 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
2 : 1
Gelbison
06 Sept
Gelbison
0 : 0
Afragolese
Page 1 of 7

Roccella

(Away)
03 Jul
FC Messina
7 : 1
Roccella
16 Jun
Roccella
1 : 1
Castrovillari
13 Jun
Gelbison
4 : 0
Roccella
30 May
Roccella
2 : 1
Biancavilla
23 May
Roccella
0 : 1
AS Acireale
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ACR Messina 34 21 11 2 66:25 74
2 FC Messina 34 21 9 4 59:25 72
3 Gelbison 34 19 9 6 54:32 66
4 San Luca 34 17 7 10 46:38 58
5 AS Acireale 34 17 6 11 51:32 57
6 Dattilo 34 16 4 14 51:47 52
7 Rotonda 34 13 10 11 31:33 49
8 Santa Maria Cilento 34 10 15 9 43:29 45
9 Biancavilla 34 14 4 16 43:47 45
10 Licata 34 11 10 13 36:39 43
11 Castrovillari 34 10 11 13 39:37 41
12 Paterno 34 10 9 15 28:35 39
13 Cittanovese 34 10 9 15 42:51 39
14 S. Agata 34 8 12 14 32:48 36
15 Troina 34 9 9 16 27:47 36
16 Rende 34 9 7 18 38:58 34
17 Marina di Ragusa 34 8 9 17 38:58 33
18 Roccella 34 5 5 24 25:68 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2020/2021 (Play Offs)