Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Genk vs Freiburg

Europe Europe

Europa League 2025/2026 Cegeka Arena, Genk
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Manzambi J.
24' Event
El Ouahdi Z.
Assist: Heynen B.
63'
Sub
Beste J. In: Irie C.
Out: Beste J.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Genk advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Genk
20%
Draws
52%
Freiburg
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Freiburg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Freiburg come out ahead of Genk on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Freiburg's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Freiburg arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Genk, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Genk Clean Sheet 10%
Freiburg Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Genk Freiburg
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 17
Draws 8 2
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.69 2.07
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2026 Europa League
Freiburg vs Genk
5:1
Mar 12, 2026 Europa League
Genk vs Freiburg
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Genk Compare

Top Goalscorer El Ouahdi Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Freiburg Compare

Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Genk 10 / 100
Freiburg 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Genk Freiburg

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Freiburg Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Genk scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Freiburg has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Genk has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Genk VS Freiburg
2.13 Goals Scored 2.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Genk

(Home)
06 Sept
Anderlecht
0 : 0
Genk
28 Aug
Genk
4 : 0
SK Beveren
22 Aug
Antwerp
4 : 4
Genk
15 Aug
Genk
3 : 2
Westerlo
09 Aug
Waregem
2 : 1
Genk
Page 1 of 6

Freiburg

(Away)
05 Sept
Paderborn
0 : 1
Freiburg
30 Aug
Freiburg
4 : 1
Werder Bremen
27 Aug
Freiburg
4 : 1
Motherwell
23 Aug
Dusseldorf
1 : 5
Freiburg
20 Aug
Motherwell
1 : 3
Freiburg
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Ludogorets 2
Ferencvaros 3
Braga -
TBD -
Panathinaikos 4
Plzen 3
Betis -
TBD -
Din. Zagreb 4
Genk 6
Freiburg -
TBD -
PAOK 1
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon -
TBD -
Celtic 2
VfB Stuttgart 4
FC Porto -
TBD -
Fenerbahce 2
Nottingham 4
Midtjylland -
TBD -
Brann 0
Bologna 2
AS Roma -
TBD -
Lille 2
Crvena zvezda 1
Aston Villa -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Ferencvaros 2
Braga 4
Panathinaikos 1
Betis 4
Genk 2
Freiburg 5
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon 1
VfB Stuttgart 1
FC Porto 4
Nottingham 3
Midtjylland 2
Bologna 5
AS Roma 4
Lille 0
Aston Villa 3
Quarter-finals
Braga 5
Betis 3
Freiburg 6
Celta Vigo 1
FC Porto 1
Nottingham 2
Bologna 1
Aston Villa 7
Semi-finals
Braga 3
Freiburg 4
Nottingham 1
Aston Villa 4
Final
Freiburg 0
Aston Villa 3