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Genk vs Freiburg

Europe Europe

Europa League 2025/2026 Cegeka Arena
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Manzambi J.
24' Event
El Ouahdi Z.
Assist: Heynen B.
63'
Sub
Beste J. In: Irie C.
Out: Beste J.

AI Match Summary

The Europa League 2025/2026 game between Genk and Freiburg finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Genk.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Genk
28%
Draws
22%
Freiburg
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Genk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Genk come out ahead of Freiburg on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Genk's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Genk Clean Sheet 68%
Freiburg Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Genk Freiburg
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 13
Draws 7 3
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 1.63 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2026 Europa League
Freiburg vs Genk
5:1
Mar 12, 2026 Europa League
Genk vs Freiburg
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Genk Compare

Top Goalscorer El Ouahdi Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Freiburg Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Genk 59 / 100
Freiburg 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Genk Freiburg

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GNK Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Freiburg has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Genk scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Genk has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Genk VS Freiburg
1.63 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Ludogorets2
Ferencvaros3
Braga-
TBD-
Panathinaikos4
Plzen3
Betis-
TBD-
Din. Zagreb4
Genk6
Freiburg-
TBD-
PAOK1
Celta Vigo3
Lyon-
TBD-
Celtic2
VfB Stuttgart4
FC Porto-
TBD-
Fenerbahce2
Nottingham4
Midtjylland-
TBD-
Brann0
Bologna2
AS Roma-
TBD-
Lille2
Crvena zvezda1
Aston Villa-
TBD-
1/8-finals
Ferencvaros2
Braga4
Panathinaikos1
Betis4
Genk2
Freiburg5
Celta Vigo3
Lyon1
VfB Stuttgart1
FC Porto4
Nottingham3
Midtjylland2
Bologna5
AS Roma4
Lille0
Aston Villa3
Quarter-finals
Braga5
Betis3
Freiburg6
Celta Vigo1
FC Porto1
Nottingham2
Bologna1
Aston Villa7
Semi-finals
Braga3
Freiburg4
Nottingham1
Aston Villa4
Final
Freiburg0
Aston Villa3