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Genk vs Leuven - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Belgium Belgium

Jupiler Pro League Cegeka Arena, Genk
Fri, Dec 11, 2026
VS
07:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Genk host Leuven in the Jupiler Pro League. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Genk at 1.48 goals for, 1.39 against; Leuven at 1.48 for, 1.69 against. Past meetings favor Genk slightly — 4-0-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 23, 2026, ending 0:2. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 1.00, favoring Genk. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Genk
20%
Draws
52%
Leuven
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Leuven

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Genk have won more games recently than Leuven.
  • 52% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Genk have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Genk Clean Sheet 20%
Leuven Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Genk Leuven
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 12 8
Draws 7 8
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.48 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Leuven vs Genk
0:2
Apr 12, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Genk vs Leuven
0:0
Nov 30, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
Genk vs Leuven
2:1
Aug 15, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
Leuven vs Genk
1:2
Jan 11, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
Genk vs Leuven
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Genk 32 / 100
Leuven 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Genk Leuven

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leuven Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Genk scored in 65% of their last 31 games.

Leuven let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Genk went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Genk VS Leuven
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Genk

(Home)
12 Nov
Genk
1 : 3
Eupen
08 Nov
Royale Union SG
1 : 0
Genk
31 Oct
KV Mechelen
1 : 0
Genk
25 Oct
Genk
2 : 1
St. Liege
17 Oct
Virton
0 : 2
Genk
Page 1 of 7

Leuven

(Away)
07 Nov
Leuven
2 : 0
KV Mechelen
01 Nov
St. Truiden
1 : 2
Leuven
24 Oct
Leuven
2 : 2
Lommel SK
17 Oct
Leuven
1 : 0
Francs Borains
11 Oct
Royale Union SG
1 : 1
Leuven
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Royale Union SG 11 9 2 0 30:7 29
2 Club Brugge 11 9 1 1 27:9 28
3 Gent 11 9 1 1 20:6 28
4 Charleroi 11 9 0 2 26:13 27
5 Anderlecht 11 6 2 3 14:12 20
6 Lommel SK 11 4 4 3 15:13 16
7 Genk 11 4 3 4 18:15 15
8 St. Liege 11 4 3 4 18:16 15
9 Westerlo 11 4 2 5 26:30 14
10 Leuven 11 3 3 5 12:17 12
11 KV Mechelen 11 3 3 5 13:20 12
12 St. Truiden 11 3 2 6 22:22 11
13 Antwerp 11 3 2 6 18:24 11
14 Waregem 11 3 2 6 13:20 11
15 SK Beveren 11 3 1 7 13:23 10
16 Cercle Brugge 11 2 3 6 14:22 9
17 RAAL La Louviere 11 2 1 8 13:24 7
18 Kortrijk 11 1 1 9 4:23 4
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Challenger Pro League 2027/2028 (Main)