Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Genoa vs AC Milan

Italy Italy

Serie A 2025/2026 Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Our Tip

Match Events

48'
Bijlow J.
50' Event
Nkunku C.
(Penalty)
62'
Gabbia M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie A 2025/2026 game between Genoa and AC Milan finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AC Milan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Genoa
30%
Draws
51%
AC Milan
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AC Milan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Genoa haven't matched AC Milan's recent run of results.
  • Model gives AC Milan a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Genoa Clean Sheet 10%
AC Milan Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Genoa AC Milan
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 12
Draws 6 8
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1.11 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.61 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Serie A
Genoa vs AC Milan
1:2
Jan 8, 2026 Serie A
AC Milan vs Genoa
1:1
May 5, 2025 Serie A
Genoa vs AC Milan
1:2
Dec 15, 2024 Serie A
AC Milan vs Genoa
0:0
May 5, 2024 Serie A
AC Milan vs Genoa
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Genoa Compare

Top Goalscorer Vasquez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

AC Milan Compare

Top Goalscorer Athekame Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Genoa 10 / 100
AC Milan 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Genoa AC Milan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AC Milan Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AC Milan's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Genoa scored in 57% of their last 28 games.

Solid form: Genoa remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Genoa VS AC Milan
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Genoa

(Home)
12 Sept
Genoa
1 : 1
Frosinone
04 Sept
Genoa
1 : 4
Como
30 Aug
Lazio
1 : 0
Genoa
22 Aug
Genoa
0 : 2
Napoli
16 Aug
Genoa
4 : 1
Ascoli
Page 1 of 6

AC Milan

(Away)
12 Sept
Lazio
2 : 2
AC Milan
06 Sept
Juventus
1 : 1
AC Milan
28 Aug
AC Milan
2 : 0
Venezia
23 Aug
Torino
1 : 2
AC Milan
15 Aug
Manchester United
2 : 4
AC Milan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter 38 27 6 5 89:35 87
2 Napoli 38 23 7 8 58:36 76
3 AS Roma 38 23 4 11 59:31 73
4 Como 38 20 11 7 65:29 71
5 AC Milan 38 20 10 8 53:35 70
6 Juventus 38 19 12 7 61:34 69
7 Atalanta 38 15 14 9 51:36 59
8 Bologna 38 16 8 14 49:46 56
9 Lazio 38 14 12 12 41:40 54
10 Udinese 38 14 8 16 45:48 50
11 Sassuolo 38 14 7 17 46:50 49
12 Torino 38 12 9 17 44:63 45
13 Parma 38 11 12 15 28:46 45
14 Cagliari 38 11 10 17 40:53 43
15 Fiorentina 38 9 15 14 41:50 42
16 Genoa 38 10 11 17 41:51 41
17 Lecce 38 10 8 20 28:50 38
18 Cremonese 38 8 10 20 32:57 34
19 Verona 38 3 12 23 25:61 21
20 Pisa 38 2 12 24 26:71 18
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B (Main)