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Genoa vs AC Milan - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie A Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Sun, Nov 8, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Genoa host AC Milan in the Serie A. Little to choose between these two on current form. AC Milan have shipped 1.43 goals a game lately, while Genoa have conceded 1.5 and scored 1. Head-to-head, Genoa have won 0 to AC Milan's 2, with 3 draws. They last met on May 17, 2026, ending 1:2. Model xG sits at 1.06 vs 1.38, favoring AC Milan. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Genoa
15%
Draws
42%
AC Milan
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Genoa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Genoa haven't matched AC Milan's recent run of results.
  • Genoa are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Serie A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Genoa Clean Sheet 68%
AC Milan Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Genoa AC Milan
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 12
Draws 4 6
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Serie A
Genoa vs AC Milan
1:2
Jan 8, 2026 Serie A
AC Milan vs Genoa
1:1
May 5, 2025 Serie A
Genoa vs AC Milan
1:2
Dec 15, 2024 Serie A
AC Milan vs Genoa
0:0
May 5, 2024 Serie A
AC Milan vs Genoa
3:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Genoa 59 / 100
AC Milan 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Genoa AC Milan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Genoa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Genoa scored in 61% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: AC Milan conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Genoa stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Genoa VS AC Milan
0.88 Goals Scored 1.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Genoa

(Home)
28 Oct
Genoa
2 : 0
Juventus
25 Oct
Genoa
1 : 0
Venezia
17 Oct
AS Roma
2 : 0
Genoa
10 Oct
Genoa
2 : 1
Fiorentina
02 Oct
Rapid Bucuresti
2 : 0
Genoa
Page 1 of 6

AC Milan

(Away)
31 Oct
AC Milan
3 : 1
Inter
28 Oct
AC Milan
2 : 4
Bologna
25 Oct
Udinese
0 : 2
AC Milan
22 Oct
Bournemouth
3 : 0
AC Milan
18 Oct
AC Milan
3 : 2
Atalanta
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter 9 8 1 0 25:10 25
2 Lazio 9 8 1 0 22:7 25
3 AS Roma 9 6 3 0 23:8 21
4 Como 9 6 2 1 17:8 20
5 AC Milan 9 5 3 1 18:11 18
6 Frosinone 9 5 2 2 22:14 17
7 Napoli 9 4 2 3 17:11 14
8 Juventus 9 4 2 3 11:10 14
9 Torino 9 4 1 4 14:14 13
10 Cagliari 9 4 1 4 8:13 13
11 Bologna 9 3 2 4 12:12 11
12 Atalanta 9 3 2 4 16:17 11
13 Genoa 9 3 1 5 8:13 10
14 Lecce 9 3 0 6 10:19 9
15 Sassuolo 9 2 2 5 14:22 8
16 Monza 9 2 1 6 16:22 7
17 Udinese 9 1 2 6 9:18 5
18 Fiorentina 9 1 2 6 11:21 5
19 Parma 9 1 2 6 5:15 5
20 Venezia 9 1 0 8 6:19 3
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)