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Genoa vs Fiorentina - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie A Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Genoa host Fiorentina in the Serie A. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Genoa have averaged 1.03 scored and 1.62 conceded recently, against Fiorentina's 1.53 scored and 1.34 conceded. Past meetings favor Fiorentina slightly — 0-2-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 10, 2026, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 1.31 vs 2.06, favoring Fiorentina. AI goal market prediction: Under 2.5, BTTS: NG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Genoa
20%
Draws
51%
Fiorentina
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Fiorentina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Fiorentina come out ahead of Genoa on wins alone.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Fiorentina taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Genoa Clean Sheet 10%
Fiorentina Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Genoa Fiorentina
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 9 13
Draws 5 10
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.03 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Serie A
Fiorentina vs Genoa
0:0
Nov 9, 2025 Serie A
Genoa vs Fiorentina
2:2
Feb 2, 2025 Serie A
Fiorentina vs Genoa
2:1
Oct 31, 2024 Serie A
Genoa vs Fiorentina
0:1
Apr 15, 2024 Serie A
Fiorentina vs Genoa
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Genoa 22 / 100
Fiorentina 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Genoa Fiorentina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fiorentina Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Fiorentina conceded in 72% of 32 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Genoa found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).

Solid form: Genoa remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Genoa VS Fiorentina
1 Goals Scored 1.63
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Genoa

(Home)
02 Oct
Rapid Bucuresti
2 : 0
Genoa
20 Sept
Parma
2 : 1
Genoa
15 Sept
Genoa
1 : 0
Sudtirol
12 Sept
Genoa
1 : 1
Frosinone
04 Sept
Genoa
1 : 4
Como
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Fiorentina

(Away)
20 Sept
Fiorentina
1 : 1
Napoli
15 Sept
Fiorentina
3 : 0
Pisa
11 Sept
Venezia
2 : 4
Fiorentina
05 Sept
Fiorentina
1 : 2
Torino
29 Aug
Fiorentina
0 : 3
Frosinone
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AS Roma 5 4 1 0 14:3 13
2 Inter 5 4 1 0 15:8 13
3 Lazio 5 4 1 0 8:3 13
4 Cagliari 5 4 0 1 5:2 12
5 AC Milan 5 3 2 0 10:4 11
6 Frosinone 5 3 1 1 9:4 10
7 Juventus 5 3 1 1 8:4 10
8 Como 5 3 1 1 9:6 10
9 Napoli 5 2 1 2 7:6 7
10 Sassuolo 5 2 1 2 9:9 7
11 Atalanta 5 2 0 3 5:7 6
12 Lecce 5 2 0 3 5:10 6
13 Udinese 5 1 1 3 8:11 4
14 Torino 5 1 1 3 5:8 4
15 Parma 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
16 Monza 5 1 1 3 8:12 4
17 Fiorentina 5 1 1 3 6:12 4
18 Bologna 5 0 2 3 3:6 2
19 Genoa 5 0 1 4 3:10 1
20 Venezia 5 0 0 5 4:13 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)