Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Georgia vs Ukraine

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, Tbilisi
Mon, Sep 28, 2026
0 - 0
04:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Vanat V.
46'
Sub
Ponomarenko M. In: Yaremchuk R.
Out: Ponomarenko M.
46'
Sub
Pikhalyonok O. In: Ocheretko O.
Out: Pikhalyonok O.

AI Match Summary

Georgia host Ukraine in the UEFA Nations League. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Georgia at 1.54 goals for, 1.29 against; Ukraine at 1.48 for, 1.45 against. Head-to-head, Georgia have won 0 to Ukraine's 3, with 2 draws. They last met on Nov 16, 2024, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 1.13 vs 1.38, favoring Ukraine. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Georgia
20%
Draws
42%
Ukraine
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ukraine

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Ukraine have won more games recently than Georgia.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Georgia taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Georgia Clean Sheet 17%
Ukraine Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Georgia Ukraine
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 12 14
Draws 5 5
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.54 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 16, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Georgia vs Ukraine
1:1
Oct 11, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Ukraine vs Georgia
1:0
Jun 9, 2015 Friendly International
Georgia vs Ukraine
1:2
Sep 8, 2007 Euro
Georgia vs Ukraine
1:1
Sep 6, 2006 Euro
Ukraine vs Georgia
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Georgia 36 / 100
Ukraine 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Georgia Ukraine

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Georgia found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Ukraine conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Georgia remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Georgia VS Ukraine
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Georgia

(Home)
25 Sept
Georgia
0 : 1
Northern Ireland
05 Jun
Georgia
2 : 0
Bahrain
02 Jun
Georgia
1 : 1
Romania
29 Mar
Lithuania
0 : 2
Georgia
26 Mar
Georgia
2 : 2
Israel
Page 1 of 6

Ukraine

(Away)
25 Sept
Hungary
0 : 1
Ukraine
07 Jun
Denmark
2 : 1
Ukraine
31 May
Poland
0 : 2
Ukraine
31 Mar
Ukraine
1 : 0
Albania
26 Mar
Ukraine
1 : 3
Sweden
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Switzerland 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
2 Scotland 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
3 Slovenia 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
4 North Macedonia 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Northern Ireland 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
2 Ukraine 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
3 Hungary 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
4 Georgia 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Austria 2 2 0 0 6:2 6
2 Kosovo 2 1 0 1 2:3 3
3 Ireland 2 1 0 1 3:1 3
4 Israel 2 0 0 2 1:6 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sweden 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
2 Poland 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
3 Bosnia & Herzegovina 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
4 Romania 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)