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Germany vs Paraguay

World World

World Championship 2026 Gillette Stadium
Mon, Jun 29, 2026
1 - 2
08:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Germany play Paraguay in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Germany averaged 2.55 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Paraguay averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. In past meetings, Germany won 1, Paraguay won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 29, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.25 for Germany and 1.06 for Paraguay. This points to a Germany double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Germany
24%
Draws
31%
Paraguay
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Germany

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Germany picked up more points recently compared to Paraguay.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.25 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 61%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Germany Clean Sheet 22%
Paraguay Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Germany Paraguay
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 19 12
Draws 4 8
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 2.55 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 3.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 29, 2026 World Championship
Germany vs Paraguay
1:2
Aug 14, 2013 Friendly International
Germany vs Paraguay
3:3
Jun 15, 2002 World Championship
Germany vs Paraguay
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Germany Compare

Top Goalscorer Havertz K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.6
Avg xA / game 1.69

Paraguay Compare

Top Goalscorer Enciso J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Germany 45 / 100
Paraguay 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Germany Paraguay

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Germany or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.82
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Germany attacking → ← attacking Paraguay

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Germany scored in 93% of their last 29 games.

Paraguay let in goals in 55% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.33 goals.

Germany went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Paraguay lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

61 Points in last 5 44
3.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13