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Ghana vs Gambia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations Accra Sports Stadium, Accra
Ghana Logo

Ghana

2 - 4
FT
Gambia Logo

Gambia

Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Nuamah E.
(Penalty)
33' Event
Afena-Gyan F.
36'
Peprah K.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-4. This leg finished 2-4.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Ghana
20%
Draws
70%
Gambia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gambia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Gambia lately — more wins on the board than Ghana.
  • Win probability leans Gambia's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Gambia arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Ghana, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Ghana have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 74.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Ghana Clean Sheet 10%
Gambia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ghana Gambia
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 10
Draws 7 8
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1.27 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 2.03
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 29, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations
Ghana vs Gambia
2:4
Oct 1, 2019 WAFU Cup of Nations
Ghana vs Gambia
1:0
Sep 9, 2017 WAFU Cup of Nations
Ghana vs Gambia
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ghana Compare

Top Goalscorer Afena-Gyan F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Gambia Compare

Top Goalscorer Colley E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Colley O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.85
Avg xA / game 1.13

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ghana 26 / 100
Gambia 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ghana Gambia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gambia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ghana scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Gambia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.67 goals when they meet.

Ghana went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ghana VS Gambia
0.63 Goals Scored 2.43
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.57
63% Over 1.5 86%
25% Over 2.5 86%
13% Over 3.5 71%

Recent Form & Match History

Ghana

(Home)
29 Sept
Ghana
2 : 4
Gambia
24 Sept
Ivory Coast
2 : 0
Ghana
04 Jul
Colombia
1 : 0
Ghana
27 Jun
Croatia
2 : 1
Ghana
23 Jun
England
0 : 0
Ghana
Page 1 of 6

Gambia

(Away)
29 Sept
Ghana
2 : 4
Gambia
25 Sept
Gambia
2 : 1
Somalia
29 May
Iran
3 : 1
Gambia
31 Mar
Senegal
3 : 1
Gambia
18 Nov
Kuwait
2 : 2
Gambia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
2 Gabon 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
3 Niger 2 1 0 1 2:3 3
4 Lesotho 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Egypt 2 1 1 0 5:0 4
2 Angola 2 1 1 0 3:1 4
3 Malawi 2 1 0 1 3:4 3
4 South Sudan 2 0 0 2 1:7 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivory Coast 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
2 Gambia 2 2 0 0 6:3 6
3 Somalia 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
4 Ghana 2 0 0 2 2:6 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Africa 2 2 0 0 7:1 6
2 Guinea 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
3 Eritrea 2 0 1 1 1:6 1
4 Kenya 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 D.R. Congo 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
2 Zimbabwe 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
3 Equatorial Guinea 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
4 Sierra Leone 2 0 0 2 2:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Benin 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
2 Burkina Faso 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
3 Mauritania 2 1 0 1 4:3 3
4 Central Africa 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameroon 2 1 1 0 4:2 4
2 Comoros 2 1 0 1 2:3 3
3 Namibia 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
4 Congo 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uganda 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
2 Botswana 2 0 2 0 4:4 2
3 Tunisia 2 0 2 0 3:3 2
4 Libya 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 2 1 1 0 5:3 4
2 Zambia 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
3 Togo 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
4 Burundi 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Senegal 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
2 Mozambique 2 1 1 0 5:2 4
3 Sudan 2 1 0 1 2:4 3
4 Ethiopia 2 0 0 2 0:2 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rwanda 2 2 0 0 5:2 6
2 Mali 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
3 Cape Verde 2 0 0 2 2:5 0
4 Liberia 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guinea Bissau 2 2 0 0 5:0 6
2 Nigeria 2 1 0 1 2:4 3
3 Tanzania 2 0 1 1 1:3 1
4 Madagascar 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)