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Ghaz Al Shamal vs Al Karma - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Fri, Nov 27, 2026
VS
03:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ghaz Al Shamal host Al Karma in the Stars League. This shapes up as a tight, low-scoring affair. Al Karma have shipped 0.68 goals a game lately, while Ghaz Al Shamal have conceded 0.77 and scored 0.69. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. xG projections (0.63 - 1.13) back Al Karma to edge this. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Ghaz Al Shamal
30%
Draws
39%
Al Karma
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Karma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Al Karma have won more games recently than Ghaz Al Shamal.
  • Win probability leans Al Karma's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Ghaz Al Shamal Clean Sheet 20%
Al Karma Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ghaz Al Shamal Al Karma
Matches Played 13 31
Wins 3 16
Draws 7 12
Losses 3 3
Goals Scored 0.69 1.61
Goals Conceded 0.77 0.68
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ghaz Al Shamal 28 / 100
Al Karma 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ghaz Al Shamal Al Karma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Karma Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ghaz Al Shamal found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (13 games).

Ghaz Al Shamal went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Al Karma conceded in 52% of 31 recent games.

Al Karma lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ghaz Al Shamal VS Al Karma
0.5 Goals Scored 1.75
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
25% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ghaz Al Shamal

(Home)
06 Nov
Al Talaba
2 : 2
Ghaz Al Shamal
30 Oct
Erbil
1 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
25 Oct
Ghaz Al Shamal
1 : 0
Naft Missan
18 Oct
Ghaz Al Shamal
1 : 0
Al Zawraa
10 Oct
Al Minaa
2 : 0
Ghaz Al Shamal
Page 1 of 3

Al Karma

(Away)
06 Nov
Al Karma
4 : 1
Naft Missan
30 Oct
Al Karma
1 : 0
Duhok
24 Oct
Al Minaa
2 : 1
Al Karma
17 Oct
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0 : 0
Al Karma
10 Oct
Al Karma
3 : 2
Al Karkh
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 13 9 3 1 23:10 30
2 Newroz 13 7 5 1 18:5 26
3 Al Naft 13 7 4 2 15:7 25
4 Al Shorta 13 6 6 1 15:7 24
5 Al Golan 13 6 5 2 19:12 23
6 Al Zawraa 13 6 3 4 17:12 21
7 Erbil 13 5 5 3 16:9 20
8 Duhok 13 4 6 3 20:16 18
9 Al Minaa 13 4 5 4 12:13 17
10 Ghaz Al Shamal 13 3 7 3 9:10 16
11 Al Talaba 13 3 7 3 15:18 16
12 Diyala 13 3 5 5 15:18 14
13 Al Gharraf 13 3 5 5 9:15 14
14 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 13 2 7 4 14:14 13
15 Zakho 13 3 4 6 10:17 13
16 Al Karkh 13 3 3 7 16:21 12
17 Al Mosul 13 3 3 7 13:21 12
18 Al Kahraba 13 2 5 6 9:15 11
19 Naft Missan 13 1 6 6 8:19 9
20 Karbala 13 1 4 8 11:25 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)