Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ghiviborgo vs Orvietana

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Baldacci D.
56' Event
Simic L.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group E matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Ghiviborgo
28%
Draws
50%
Orvietana
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Orvietana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Orvietana average 0.75 goals a game right now, well clear of Ghiviborgo's 0.63.
  • Orvietana are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Ghiviborgo Clean Sheet 22%
Orvietana Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ghiviborgo Orvietana
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 8
Draws 9 11
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 0.63 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.38 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Ghiviborgo vs Orvietana
1:1
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Orvietana vs Ghiviborgo
1:2
Feb 2, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Orvietana vs Ghiviborgo
2:2
Oct 6, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Ghiviborgo vs Orvietana
1:2
Mar 27, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Orvietana vs Ghiviborgo
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ghiviborgo Compare

Top Goalscorer Baldacci D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Orvietana Compare

Top Goalscorer Simic L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ghiviborgo 24 / 100
Orvietana 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ghiviborgo Orvietana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ORV Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ghiviborgo scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Orvietana's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 30 matches.

Solid form: Ghiviborgo remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ghiviborgo VS Orvietana
0.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ghiviborgo

(Home)
25 Jul
Livorno
1 : 1
Ghiviborgo
02 May
Ghiviborgo
0 : 3
Grosseto
26 Apr
Montevarchi
1 : 0
Ghiviborgo
19 Apr
Ghiviborgo
1 : 0
Seravezza Pozzi
12 Apr
San Donato Tavarnelle
1 : 0
Ghiviborgo
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Orvietana

(Away)
10 May
Orvietana
1 : 0
Poggibonsi
03 May
Terranuova Traiana
0 : 0
Orvietana
26 Apr
Orvietana
3 : 2
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
19 Apr
Follonica Gavorrano
0 : 1
Orvietana
12 Apr
Orvietana
0 : 1
Scandicci
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Grosseto34226658:2572
2Tau34189753:3363
3Prato34205949:2963
4Siena34179857:3560
5Seravezza Pozzi341512742:2957
6Terranuova Traiana341491128:3051
7Foligno341491145:3751
8Scandicci341115839:3248
9Montevarchi341016828:3246
10Sporting Trestina3410121240:4242
11San Donato Tavarnelle349131230:3540
12Ghiviborgo3410101442:4440
13Orvietana349111433:3738
14Follonica Gavorrano349101536:4937
15Camaiore Calcio34981741:5435
16Poggibonsi347101729:4631
17Cannara34682024:5926
18Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro342161620:4622
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)