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Gicumbi vs Al Merreikh - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gicumbi host Al Merreikh in the Premier League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Gicumbi have averaged 1.14 scored and 1.59 conceded recently, against Al Merreikh's 1.2 scored and 0.67 conceded. Past meetings favor Al Merreikh slightly — 0-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 2, 2026, ending 0:3. xG projections (1.19 - 0.94) back Al Merreikh to edge this. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Gicumbi
15%
Draws
37%
Al Merreikh
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gicumbi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Al Merreikh carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Gicumbi Clean Sheet 20%
Al Merreikh Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gicumbi Al Merreikh
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 14
Draws 5 11
Losses 13 5
Goals Scored 1.14 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.59 0.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Premier League
Gicumbi vs Al Merreikh
0:3
Dec 21, 2025 Premier League
Al Merreikh vs Gicumbi
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gicumbi 32 / 100
Al Merreikh 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gicumbi Al Merreikh

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Gicumbi scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Gicumbi has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Al Merreikh has conceded goals in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Gicumbi VS Al Merreikh
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Gicumbi

(Home)
09 Oct
Kigali FC
1 : 0
Gicumbi
15 Sept
Etoile de L'Est
1 : 2
Gicumbi
12 Sept
Gicumbi
1 : 0
Amagaju
07 Sept
Police
1 : 2
Gicumbi
31 May
APR
2 : 0
Gicumbi
Page 1 of 6

Al Merreikh

(Away)
18 Sept
Amagaju
0 : 0
Al Merreikh
12 Sept
Power Dynamos
0 : 1
Al Merreikh
05 Sept
Al Merreikh
1 : 0
Power Dynamos
31 May
Gorilla
3 : 1
Al Merreikh
27 May
Al Merreikh
1 : 2
APR
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gicumbi 4 3 0 1 5:3 9
2 Etincelles 3 2 1 0 2:0 7
3 Gorilla 3 2 0 1 2:1 6
4 Amagaju 3 1 1 1 2:1 4
5 Kigali FC 4 1 1 2 1:4 4
6 APR 1 1 0 0 4:2 3
7 Al Hilal Omdurman 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
8 Mukura Victory Sports 2 1 0 1 2:1 3
9 Marines 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
10 Police 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
11 Musanze 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
12 Kiyovu 3 1 0 2 1:2 3
13 Sunrise 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
14 Al Merreikh 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
15 Rayon Sport 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
16 Etoile de L'Est 3 0 1 2 1:4 1
17 Bugesera 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
18 Gasogi United 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)