Sport Picks
Gillingham vs Northampton - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
League Two Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham 
Match Events
4'
4'
McKenzie R.
7'
7'
McManus C.
Assist: Freeman N.
14'
14'
Beckles O.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this League Two matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Gillingham lately — more wins on the board than Northampton.
- 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Gillingham Clean Sheet 14%
Northampton Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Gillingham | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 11 | 5 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 11 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 0.82 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.62 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 29, 2026 League Two
Gillingham vs Northampton
1:1
Apr 10, 2023 League Two
Northampton vs Gillingham
2:1
Nov 12, 2022 League Two
Gillingham vs Northampton
0:2
Apr 24, 2021 League One
Gillingham vs Northampton
2:2
Dec 29, 2020 League One
Northampton vs Gillingham
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Gillingham Compare
Top Goalscorer McManus C.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Northampton Compare
Top Goalscorer Briggs L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Gillingham 31 / 100
Northampton 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Gillingham Northampton
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Northampton Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Gillingham's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Northampton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Gillingham went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Gillingham VS Northampton
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
2.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 13%
63% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Gillingham
(Home) 31 Oct
Shrewsbury
1 : 2 Gillingham
24 Oct
Gillingham
1 : 4 Grimsby
20 Oct
Gillingham
1 : 1 Port Vale
17 Oct
Accrington
3 : 1 Gillingham
13 Oct
Gillingham
4 : 3 Brighton U21
Page 1 of 6
24 Oct
Gillingham
1 : 4 Grimsby
20 Oct
Gillingham
1 : 1 Port Vale
13 Oct
Gillingham
4 : 3 Brighton U21
03 Oct
Gillingham
0 : 0 Newport
22 Sept
Gillingham
1 : 4 Cambridge Utd
Page 1 of 3
Northampton
(Away) 03 Nov
Northampton
0 : 1 Oldham
31 Oct
Accrington
1 : 1 Northampton
24 Oct
Northampton
2 : 0 Colchester
20 Oct
Northampton
0 : 1 Tranmere
17 Oct
Grimsby
0 : 2 Northampton
Page 1 of 6
31 Oct
Accrington
1 : 1 Northampton
17 Oct
Grimsby
0 : 2 Northampton
10 Oct
York City
1 : 1 Northampton
06 Oct
Cambridge Utd
2 : 1 Northampton
12 Sept
Shrewsbury
2 : 0 Northampton
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 25:15 | 31 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 28:18 | 26 |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 4 | Crewe | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 17:17 | 22 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 23:25 | 21 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 24:18 | 20 |
| 7 | York City | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 24:21 | 20 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20:19 | 20 |
| 9 | Accrington | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 23:17 | 19 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24:21 | 19 |
| 11 | Tranmere | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 19:17 | 19 |
| 12 | Exeter | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 11:9 | 19 |
| 13 | Swindon | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 15:17 | 19 |
| 14 | Newport | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 20:17 | 18 |
| 15 | Shrewsbury | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17:22 | 18 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18:18 | 17 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17:23 | 16 |
| 18 | Oldham | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15:19 | 15 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10:14 | 15 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 17:26 | 15 |
| 21 | Northampton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 9:10 | 14 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 18:25 | 12 |
| 23 | Colchester | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 12:19 | 12 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13:21 | 9 |
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
