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Glenavon vs Rathfriland Rangers - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

NIFL Championship Mourneview Park, Lurgan
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Glenavon in this NIFL Championship matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Glenavon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Glenavon
20%
Draws
36%
Rathfriland Rangers
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Glenavon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Rathfriland Rangers at 1.68 per game, Glenavon at 1.55.
  • Glenavon are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Glenavon Clean Sheet 20%
Rathfriland Rangers Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Glenavon Rathfriland Rangers
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 11 11
Draws 8 0
Losses 12 17
Goals Scored 1.55 1.68
Goals Conceded 1.45 2.14
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2026 NIFL Championship
Glenavon vs Rathfriland Rangers
3:1
Jul 26, 2022 Club Friendly
Rathfriland Rangers vs Glenavon
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Glenavon 76 / 100
Rathfriland Rangers 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Glenavon Rathfriland Rangers

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Glenavon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Rathfriland Rangers conceded in 89% of 28 recent games.

Glenavon has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Glenavon's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Glenavon VS Rathfriland Rangers
2.5 Goals Scored 0.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Glenavon

(Home)
10 Oct
Annagh
1 : 1
Glenavon
03 Oct
Moyola
0 : 3
Glenavon
25 Sept
Glenavon
4 : 1
Loughgall
19 Sept
Glenavon
1 : 0
Newington FC
12 Sept
Ballinamallard
1 : 1
Glenavon
Page 1 of 7

Rathfriland Rangers

(Away)
09 Oct
Rathfriland Rangers
2 : 1
Armagh
03 Oct
Harland & Wolff
1 : 3
Rathfriland Rangers
25 Sept
Rathfriland Rangers
0 : 2
Warrenpoint
19 Sept
Rathfriland Rangers
1 : 0
Queens University
12 Sept
Ards
1 : 0
Rathfriland Rangers
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Annagh 11 6 4 1 25:14 22
2 Glenavon 11 6 3 2 26:14 21
3 Newington FC 11 6 2 3 24:20 20
4 Queens University 11 6 1 4 20:8 19
5 Newry City 11 5 3 3 19:19 18
6 Warrenpoint 11 5 2 4 19:15 17
7 Institute 11 5 2 4 20:17 17
8 Ballinamallard 11 5 2 4 17:16 17
9 Harland & Wolff 11 5 1 5 18:16 16
10 Ards 11 4 3 4 14:13 15
11 Moyola 11 4 2 5 12:21 14
12 Loughgall 11 3 4 4 15:21 13
13 Dundela 11 2 5 4 19:23 11
14 Strabane Athletic 11 2 3 6 10:20 9
15 Rathfriland Rangers 11 3 0 8 11:23 9
16 Armagh 11 0 5 6 9:18 5
Promotion - NIFL Championship (Promotion Group)
Relegation - NIFL Championship (Relegation Group)