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Gnistan vs Ilves - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Markku.fi Areena, Helsinki
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Vaisanen S.
Own Goal
14' Event
Hytonen T.
Assist: Pettersson O.
24'
Milovanov B.

AI Match Summary

Gnistan in this Veikkausliiga matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gnistan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Gnistan
35%
Draws
41%
Ilves
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ilves

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ilves lately — more wins on the board than Gnistan.
  • Win probability leans Ilves's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Veikkausliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Ilves here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Gnistan Clean Sheet 16%
Ilves Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gnistan Ilves
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 14
Draws 10 4
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.46 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 17, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Gnistan vs Ilves
3:2
May 23, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Ilves vs Gnistan
2:0
Jan 24, 2026 Club Friendly
Ilves vs Gnistan
1:0
Oct 25, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Gnistan vs Ilves
1:3
Sep 23, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Ilves vs Gnistan
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gnistan Compare

Top Goalscorer Akinyemi A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Milovanov B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Ilves Compare

Top Goalscorer Hytonen T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Popovitch A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gnistan 11 / 100
Ilves 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gnistan Ilves

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ilves Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:8
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Gnistan has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Gnistan found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).

Ilves's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Gnistan VS Ilves
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Gnistan

(Home)
07 Oct
Gnistan
0 : 0
Inter Turku
18 Sept
Gnistan
1 : 1
HJK
12 Sept
AC Oulu
1 : 2
Gnistan
08 Sept
Gnistan
1 : 1
KuPS
31 Aug
Gnistan
1 : 1
TPS
Page 1 of 6

Ilves

(Away)
03 Oct
Ilves
3 : 0
Haka
19 Sept
TPS
0 : 3
Ilves
12 Sept
Ilves
3 : 1
Lahti
08 Sept
Ilves
2 : 0
Jaro
31 Aug
Ilves
1 : 2
HJK
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KuPS 22 12 7 3 38:23 43
2 Inter Turku 22 11 9 2 29:16 42
3 HJK 22 11 4 7 36:27 37
4 Gnistan 22 10 6 6 36:29 36
5 AC Oulu 22 10 4 8 25:25 34
6 VPS 22 9 6 7 29:22 33
7 Lahti 22 9 5 8 26:19 32
8 TPS 22 8 7 7 28:23 31
9 Ilves 22 7 4 11 34:37 25
10 SJK 22 4 7 11 25:33 19
11 Jaro 22 3 6 13 18:44 15
12 Mariehamn 22 3 5 14 17:43 14
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)