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Gnistan vs Ilves

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Markku.fi Areena, Helsinki
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Vaisanen S.
Own Goal
14' Event
Hytonen T.
Assist: Pettersson O.
24'
Milovanov B.

AI Match Summary

Gnistan in this Veikkausliiga matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gnistan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Gnistan
20%
Draws
23%
Ilves
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gnistan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ilves lately — more wins on the board than Gnistan.
  • Win probability leans Gnistan's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Veikkausliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Ilves here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Gnistan Clean Sheet 19%
Ilves Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gnistan Ilves
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 11 12
Draws 7 7
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.39 1.73
Goals Conceded 1.36 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 17, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Gnistan vs Ilves
3:2
May 23, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Ilves vs Gnistan
2:0
Jan 24, 2026 Club Friendly
Ilves vs Gnistan
1:0
Oct 25, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Gnistan vs Ilves
1:3
Sep 23, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Ilves vs Gnistan
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gnistan Compare

Top Goalscorer Akinyemi A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Milovanov B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Ilves Compare

Top Goalscorer Hytonen T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Popovitch A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gnistan 58 / 100
Ilves 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gnistan Ilves

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gnistan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 7:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Gnistan scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Ilves conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Gnistan stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Gnistan VS Ilves
1.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Gnistan

(Home)
17 Aug
Gnistan
3 : 2
Ilves
07 Aug
SJK
2 : 2
Gnistan
01 Aug
Gnistan
0 : 1
KuPS
26 Jul
Inter Turku
1 : 2
Gnistan
18 Jul
AC Oulu
0 : 2
Gnistan
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Ilves

(Away)
17 Aug
Gnistan
3 : 2
Ilves
13 Aug
Ilves
1 : 1
Rijeka
09 Aug
Ilves
2 : 0
Mariehamn
06 Aug
Rijeka
1 : 0
Ilves
02 Aug
AC Oulu
1 : 0
Ilves
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KuPS 20 12 7 1 36:18 43
2 Inter Turku 20 10 8 2 28:16 38
3 HJK 20 10 4 6 32:23 34
4 Gnistan 20 9 5 6 32:26 32
5 VPS 20 8 6 6 28:21 30
6 AC Oulu 20 9 3 8 24:25 30
7 TPS 20 8 5 7 27:22 29
8 Lahti 20 7 5 8 23:18 26
9 Ilves 20 7 4 9 33:34 25
10 SJK 20 4 6 10 24:31 18
11 Jaro 20 3 6 11 18:41 15
12 Mariehamn 20 1 5 14 11:41 8
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)