Sport Picks

Brazil

Serie D 2025 Estádio Valdeir José de Oliveira

Goiania

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Goianesia play Goiania in the Serie D 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Goianesia averaged 0.87 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. Goiania averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. In past meetings, Goianesia won 2, Goiania won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jul 5, 2025 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Goianesia and 1.06 for Goiania. This points to a Goianesia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%

Goianesia

25%

Draws

36%

Goiania

Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Goianesia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Goianesia picked up more points recently compared to Goiania.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.06 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 66%

Over 2.5 Goals 48%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%

Goianesia Clean Sheet 22%

Goiania Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 59%

Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Goianesia	Goiania
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	4	5
Draws	10	6
Losses	16	19
Goals Scored	0.87	0.83
Goals Conceded	1.57	1.67
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2025 Serie D

Goianesia vs Goiania

Possession: 53% - 54% Cards: 4 - 1

1:3

May 10, 2025 Serie D

Goiania vs Goianesia

Possession: 52% - 57% Cards: 3 - 4

0:1

Feb 13, 2025 Goiano

Goiania vs Goianesia

Possession: 54% - 48% Cards: 0 - 0

1:3

Feb 3, 2024 Goiano

Goiania vs Goianesia

Possession: 51% - 53% Cards: 1 - 3

1:0

Jan 28, 2023 Goiano

Goiania vs Goianesia

Possession: 45% - 40% Cards: 0 - 3

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Goianesia Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaio Wilker

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Goiania Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo Modesto

1 Goals

Assists Leader Kauan

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Goianesia 40 / 100

Goiania 34 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Goianesia Goiania

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Goianesia or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +26%

3.23

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.38

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Goianesia attacking → ← attacking Goiania

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Goianesia scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Goiania let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Goianesia went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Goiania lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

22 Points in last 5 21

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.75

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tuna Luso	14	8	3	3	24:10	27
2	Manauara	14	7	5	2	27:11	26
3	Manaus FC	14	6	5	3	21:17	23
4	Independencia Futebol Clube	14	6	3	5	18:19	21
5	Aguia De Maraba	14	5	5	4	22:14	20
6	Trem	14	5	3	6	23:24	18
7	Gremio Atletico Sampaio	14	4	3	7	17:24	15
8	SC Humaita	14	1	1	12	12:45	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	AE Altos	14	7	5	2	22:14	26
2	Imperatriz	14	7	3	4	17:15	24
3	Sampaio Correa	14	5	6	3	17:11	21
4	Maranhao	14	4	7	3	18:12	19
5	Iguatu	14	5	3	6	15:15	18
6	Tocantinopolis	14	3	6	5	11:17	15
7	Parnahyba	14	3	5	6	16:22	14
8	Maracana	14	3	3	8	12:22	12

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	America RN	14	8	3	3	21:9	27
2	Santa Cruz	14	8	3	3	20:10	27
3	Central SC	14	7	5	2	15:7	26
4	Ferroviario	14	5	3	6	15:19	18
5	Horizonte	14	5	2	7	14:17	17
6	Santa Cruz de Natal	14	5	2	7	13:20	17
7	Treze PB	14	4	1	9	7:20	13
8	Sousa	14	3	3	8	11:14	12

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ASA	14	9	4	1	27:8	31
2	Lagarto	14	7	2	5	20:16	23
3	Sergipe	14	6	4	4	16:10	22
4	Juazeirense	14	6	4	4	12:15	22
5	Uniao Carmolandense	14	5	4	5	14:16	19
6	Jequie	14	4	4	6	15:16	16
7	Barcelona FC	14	2	5	7	9:20	11
8	SC Penedense	14	1	5	8	5:17	8

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Aparecidense	14	10	2	2	32:12	32
2	Ceilandia	14	8	4	2	23:14	28
3	Luverdense	14	7	4	3	14:12	25
4	Mixto	14	6	6	2	22:13	24
5	Capital	14	4	5	5	14:12	17
6	Goiania	14	2	4	8	12:22	10
7	Goianesia	14	1	5	8	11:22	8
8	Porto Velho	14	1	4	9	9:30	7

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portuguesa	14	9	3	2	22:13	30
2	Rio Branco ES	14	8	2	4	19:9	26
3	Agua Santa	14	6	3	5	20:18	21
4	Marica	14	5	4	5	14:14	19
5	Pouso Alegre	14	5	2	7	13:18	17
6	Porto Vitoria	14	4	5	5	14:13	17
7	Nova Iguacu	14	3	6	5	13:16	15
8	Boavista	14	2	3	9	9:23	9

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Internacional de Limeira	14	9	3	2	21:7	30
2	Cianorte	14	6	4	4	22:17	22
3	Goiatuba EC	14	6	4	4	21:16	22
4	FC Cascavel	14	5	6	3	15:15	21
5	Uberlandia	14	4	4	6	21:20	16
6	Monte Azul	14	3	5	6	13:18	14
7	Operario MS	14	3	5	6	13:22	14
8	Itabirito	14	1	7	6	11:22	10

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barra FC (Santa Catarina)	14	8	2	4	20:10	26
2	EC Sao Jose (PA)	14	7	5	2	21:11	26
3	Joinville	14	6	3	5	11:11	21
4	Marcilio Dias	14	5	6	3	17:15	21
5	Guarany de Bage	14	5	4	5	11:14	19
6	Brasil de Pelotas	14	5	1	8	11:12	16
7	Sao Luiz	14	4	1	9	10:20	13
8	Azuriz	14	3	4	7	6:14	13