Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Gorna vs Nesebar

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Vtora liga Lokomotiv stadium, Gorna Orjahovica
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Rangelov B. In: Mauro Ribeiro
Out: Rangelov B.
54'
Paskov P.
63'
Sub
Gelin N. In: Parashkevov K.
Out: Gelin N.

AI Match Summary

The Vtora liga game between Gorna and Nesebar finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Gorna
35%
Draws
32%
Nesebar
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Nesebar come out ahead of Gorna on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Nesebar's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Vtora liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Gorna Clean Sheet 14%
Nesebar Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gorna Nesebar
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 7 18
Draws 7 7
Losses 14 4
Goals Scored 0.96 2.86
Goals Conceded 1.64 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 15, 2026 Vtora liga
Gorna vs Nesebar
1:1
May 24, 2025 Vtora liga
Nesebar vs Gorna
1:1
Nov 30, 2024 Vtora liga
Gorna vs Nesebar
0:0
May 4, 2019 Vtora liga
Gorna vs Nesebar
1:1
Oct 27, 2018 Vtora liga
Nesebar vs Gorna
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gorna Compare

Top Goalscorer Ivanov M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Nesebar Compare

Top Goalscorer Parashkevov K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gorna 19 / 100
Nesebar 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gorna Nesebar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nesebar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gorna found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (28 games).

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Gorna remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Nesebar let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Gorna VS Nesebar
0.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Gorna

(Home)
15 Sept
Gorna
1 : 1
Nesebar
07 Sept
Svoge
0 : 0
Gorna
03 Sept
Gorna
2 : 0
Dobrudzha
30 Aug
Montana
3 : 0
Gorna
21 Aug
Gorna
2 : 1
Etar
Page 1 of 6

Nesebar

(Away)
15 Sept
Gorna
1 : 1
Nesebar
06 Sept
Nesebar
2 : 1
Rilski Sportist
02 Sept
Marek
1 : 0
Nesebar
29 Aug
Nesebar
1 : 1
Yantra Gabrovo
23 Aug
Nesebar
7 : 0
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vihren 9 6 3 0 21:8 21
2 CSKA Sofia II 9 5 2 2 19:8 17
3 Fratria 9 4 4 1 12:7 16
4 Yantra Gabrovo 9 5 1 3 12:9 16
5 Chernomorets 1919 9 4 3 2 12:6 15
6 Beroe 9 4 3 2 12:8 15
7 Etar 9 4 2 3 15:15 14
8 Nesebar 9 4 2 3 16:12 14
9 Marek 9 4 1 4 10:9 13
10 Ludogorets II 9 3 3 3 9:9 12
11 Rilski Sportist 9 3 3 3 10:9 12
12 Gorna 9 3 3 3 8:10 12
13 Hebar 9 3 2 4 18:17 11
14 Montana 9 3 2 4 13:16 11
15 Spartak Pleven 9 3 1 5 10:19 10
16 Svoge 9 1 4 4 4:7 7
17 Dobrudzha 9 1 3 5 9:14 6
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 9 0 0 9 3:30 0
Promotion - efbet League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - efbet League (Relegation)
Relegation - Vtora liga (Relegation)