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Gorna vs Nesebar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Vtora liga Lokomotiv stadium, Gorna Orjahovica
Gorna Logo

Gorna

1 - 1
FT
Nesebar Logo

Nesebar

Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Rangelov B. In: Mauro Ribeiro
Out: Rangelov B.
54'
Paskov P.
63'
Sub
Gelin N. In: Parashkevov K.
Out: Gelin N.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Vtora liga game between Gorna and Nesebar finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Gorna
20%
Draws
19%
Nesebar
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gorna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Nesebar come out ahead of Gorna on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Gorna's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Vtora liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Gorna Clean Sheet 68%
Nesebar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gorna Nesebar
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 16
Draws 7 5
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.07 2.55
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 15, 2026 Vtora liga
Gorna vs Nesebar
1:1
May 24, 2025 Vtora liga
Nesebar vs Gorna
1:1
Nov 30, 2024 Vtora liga
Gorna vs Nesebar
0:0
May 4, 2019 Vtora liga
Gorna vs Nesebar
1:1
Oct 27, 2018 Vtora liga
Nesebar vs Gorna
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gorna Compare

Top Goalscorer Ivanov M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Nesebar Compare

Top Goalscorer Parashkevov K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gorna 95 / 100
Nesebar 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gorna Nesebar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gorna Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Gorna remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Gorna's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Nesebar conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Scoring Trends

Gorna VS Nesebar
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Gorna

(Home)
30 Oct
Gorna
2 : 0
Beroe
23 Oct
Gorna
2 : 0
Pirin Blagoevgrad
17 Oct
Gorna
2 : 1
Septemvri Sofia
10 Oct
Rilski Sportist
0 : 0
Gorna
04 Oct
Natsional Sofia
1 : 3
Gorna
Page 1 of 6

Nesebar

(Away)
31 Oct
Nesebar
1 : 2
Chernomorets 1919
23 Oct
Hebar
2 : 1
Nesebar
18 Oct
Nesebar
0 : 2
CSKA Sofia
10 Oct
Nesebar
0 : 0
CSKA Sofia II
04 Oct
Rodopa Smolyan
1 : 3
Nesebar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CSKA Sofia II 14 8 4 2 29:13 28
2 Chernomorets 1919 14 8 4 2 24:10 28
3 Vihren 14 7 5 2 26:13 26
4 Gorna 14 6 5 3 13:10 23
5 Yantra Gabrovo 14 7 2 5 19:14 23
6 Fratria 13 6 4 3 18:12 22
7 Beroe 14 6 3 5 21:18 21
8 Spartak Pleven 14 6 2 6 16:25 20
9 Hebar 14 6 2 6 29:24 20
10 Rilski Sportist 14 5 5 4 15:13 20
11 Etar 13 6 2 5 22:21 20
12 Ludogorets II 13 5 4 4 18:14 19
13 Marek 14 5 3 6 16:18 18
14 Nesebar 14 5 3 6 22:21 18
15 Montana 14 4 2 8 18:29 14
16 Svoge 14 2 6 6 10:15 12
17 Dobrudzha 13 2 3 8 13:26 9
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 14 0 1 13 5:38 1
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