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Gran Pena vs Barbadas-Bentraces

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gran Pena play Barbadas-Bentraces in the Tercera RFEF - Group 1. Gran Pena are favorites here. Recently, Gran Pena averaged 1.77 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. Barbadas-Bentraces averaged 0.67 goals scored and 2.1 conceded. In past meetings, Gran Pena won 1, Barbadas-Bentraces won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 26, 2026 ended 0:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Gran Pena and 1.00 for Barbadas-Bentraces. This points to a Gran Pena double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Gran Pena
25%
Draws
15%
Barbadas-Bentraces
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Gran Pena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Gran Pena picked up more points recently compared to Barbadas-Bentraces.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Gran Pena Clean Sheet 23%
Barbadas-Bentraces Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gran Pena Barbadas-Bentraces
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 3
Draws 9 5
Losses 8 22
Goals Scored 1.77 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.17 2.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Barbadas-Bentraces vs Gran Pena
0:4
Dec 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Barbadas-Bentraces
1:2
Apr 17, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Barbadas-Bentraces vs Gran Pena
2:0
Sep 15, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Barbadas-Bentraces
0:0
Apr 20, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Barbadas-Bentraces
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gran Pena Compare

Top Goalscorer Lago M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Barbadas-Bentraces Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomez I.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gran Pena 59 / 100
Barbadas-Bentraces 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gran Pena Barbadas-Bentraces

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gran Pena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Gran Pena & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.2%
2.22
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gran Pena attacking → ← attacking Barbadas-Bentraces

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gran Pena scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Barbadas-Bentraces let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Gran Pena went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Barbadas-Bentraces lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 14
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Arosa SC342010458:3570
2Compostela341911455:2868
3Atletico Arteixo341610854:4458
4Estradense341411946:3353
5Racing Club Villalbes341313836:2952
6Gran Pena341312957:4251
7Somozas341312937:3251
8CD Boiro341312945:2951
9Lugo B3412121041:3548
10Montaneros3412121048:4248
11Barco341371435:4146
12Alondras341291345:4845
13Celtiga341171647:4840
14Viveiro349111427:4138
15Silva SD34991636:4836
16Cambados344141624:4326
17Noia34672128:5725
18Barbadas-Bentraces34472325:6919