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Gran Pena vs Celtiga - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gran Pena host Celtiga in the Tercera RFEF - Group 1. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Recent numbers: Gran Pena at 1.93 goals for, 1.3 against; Celtiga at 1.17 for, 1.41 against. Past meetings favor Gran Pena slightly — 1-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 22, 2026, ending 1:1. The numbers (2.13 xG vs 1.19) point toward Gran Pena. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Gran Pena
30%
Draws
29%
Celtiga
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gran Pena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Celtiga haven't matched Gran Pena's recent run of results.
  • 41% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Gran Pena Clean Sheet 20%
Celtiga Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gran Pena Celtiga
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 7
Draws 8 8
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.93 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Celtiga vs Gran Pena
1:1
Nov 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Celtiga
2:4
May 3, 2009 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Celtiga vs Gran Pena
0:0
Dec 21, 2008 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Celtiga
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gran Pena 31 / 100
Celtiga 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gran Pena Celtiga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gran Pena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gran Pena's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Celtiga conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.75 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Gran Pena remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Gran Pena VS Celtiga
2.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Gran Pena

(Home)
04 Oct
Gran Pena
3 : 2
Atletico Arteixo
26 Sept
Sarriana
3 : 2
Gran Pena
20 Sept
Gran Pena
0 : 0
Antela
13 Sept
Pontevedra B
1 : 2
Gran Pena
06 Sept
Gran Pena
1 : 2
Lalin
Page 1 of 6

Celtiga

(Away)
04 Oct
Viveiro
0 : 0
Celtiga
27 Sept
Celtiga
2 : 0
Estradense
19 Sept
Racing Club Villalbes
3 : 2
Celtiga
12 Sept
Celtiga
0 : 2
CD Boiro
06 Sept
Silva SD
1 : 1
Celtiga
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Boiro 5 3 1 1 10:6 10
2 Barco 5 3 1 1 6:4 10
3 Lalin 5 3 1 1 5:3 10
4 Antela 5 3 1 1 5:4 10
5 Sarriana 5 3 0 2 9:7 9
6 Racing Club Villalbes 5 2 3 0 7:5 9
7 Alondras 5 3 0 2 10:9 9
8 Pontevedra B 5 2 1 2 9:6 7
9 Portonovo SD 5 2 1 2 7:6 7
10 Gran Pena 5 2 1 2 8:8 7
11 Estradense 5 2 1 2 8:9 7
12 Celtiga 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
13 Somozas 5 1 2 2 3:4 5
14 Atletico Arteixo 5 1 2 2 6:8 5
15 Silva SD 5 1 2 2 5:8 5
16 Viveiro 5 1 1 3 2:5 4
17 Arenteiro 5 1 0 4 4:7 3
18 Montaneros 5 1 0 4 7:11 3
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 (Play Offs)