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Gran Pena vs Estradense

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

39' Event
Lopez F.
49' Event
Padin H.
59' Event
Coira A.

AI Match Summary

Gran Pena in this Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gran Pena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Gran Pena
20%
Draws
23%
Estradense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gran Pena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Gran Pena lately — more wins on the board than Estradense.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Gran Pena taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Gran Pena Clean Sheet 68%
Estradense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gran Pena Estradense
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 13 11
Draws 9 10
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.77 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Estradense
2:1
Oct 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Estradense vs Gran Pena
0:0
Feb 2, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Estradense vs Gran Pena
2:2
Sep 22, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Estradense
0:1
May 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Estradense
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gran Pena Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Coira A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Estradense Compare

Top Goalscorer Padin H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gran Pena 95 / 100
Estradense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gran Pena Estradense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gran Pena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Gran Pena scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Estradense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Gran Pena remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Gran Pena VS Estradense
2.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Gran Pena

(Home)
10 May
Noia
1 : 5
Gran Pena
03 May
Gran Pena
4 : 1
Racing Club Villalbes
26 Apr
Barbadas-Bentraces
0 : 4
Gran Pena
19 Apr
Gran Pena
0 : 2
Alondras
11 Apr
Lugo B
0 : 0
Gran Pena
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Estradense

(Away)
08 Aug
Estradense
0 : 5
Pontevedra
23 May
Atletico Arteixo
2 : 2
Estradense
16 May
Estradense
0 : 1
Atletico Arteixo
10 May
Estradense
3 : 1
Barco
01 May
Compostela
2 : 1
Estradense
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arosa SC 34 20 10 4 58:35 70
2 Compostela 34 19 11 4 55:28 68
3 Atletico Arteixo 34 16 10 8 54:44 58
4 Estradense 34 14 11 9 46:33 53
5 Racing Club Villalbes 34 13 13 8 36:29 52
6 Gran Pena 34 13 12 9 57:42 51
7 Somozas 34 13 12 9 37:32 51
8 CD Boiro 34 13 12 9 45:29 51
9 Lugo B 34 12 12 10 41:35 48
10 Montaneros 34 12 12 10 48:42 48
11 Barco 34 13 7 14 35:41 46
12 Alondras 34 12 9 13 45:48 45
13 Celtiga 34 11 7 16 47:48 40
14 Viveiro 34 9 11 14 27:41 38
15 Silva SD 34 9 9 16 36:48 36
16 Cambados 34 4 14 16 24:43 26
17 Noia 34 6 7 21 28:57 25
18 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 4 7 23 25:69 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Play Offs)