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Gran Pena vs Valladares

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Fernandez H.
44' Event
Avinu J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2024/2025 game between Gran Pena and Valladares finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Gran Pena
35%
Draws
24%
Valladares
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Gran Pena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Gran Pena come out ahead of Valladares on wins alone.
  • Model gives Gran Pena a 41% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Gran Pena Clean Sheet 20%
Valladares Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gran Pena Valladares
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 14 7
Draws 11 11
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.74 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 27, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Valladares vs Gran Pena
0:0
Dec 15, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Valladares
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gran Pena Compare

Top Goalscorer Avinu J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Valladares Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandez H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gran Pena 85 / 100
Valladares 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gran Pena Valladares

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gran Pena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gran Pena found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (35 games).

Valladares's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Gran Pena went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Gran Pena VS -
1.75 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Gran Pena

(Home)
20 Sept
Gran Pena
0 : 0
Antela
13 Sept
Pontevedra B
1 : 2
Gran Pena
06 Sept
Gran Pena
1 : 2
Lalin
10 May
Noia
1 : 5
Gran Pena
03 May
Gran Pena
4 : 1
Racing Club Villalbes
Page 1 of 7

Valladares

(Away)
11 May
Valladares
3 : 1
Silva SD
03 May
Estradense
2 : 0
Valladares
27 Apr
Valladares
0 : 0
Gran Pena
20 Apr
Somozas
1 : 1
Valladares
17 Apr
Valladares
2 : 2
Sarriana
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Ourense 34 21 11 2 54:20 74
2 Estradense 34 18 6 10 52:37 60
3 Sarriana 34 18 5 11 66:48 59
4 Racing Club Villalbes 34 16 10 8 40:28 58
5 Noia 34 14 13 7 42:31 55
6 Arosa SC 34 15 10 9 58:46 55
7 Alondras 34 14 10 10 44:40 52
8 Lugo B 34 12 9 13 43:45 45
9 CD Boiro 34 11 11 12 40:39 44
10 Somozas 34 10 10 14 36:43 40
11 Gran Pena 34 9 13 12 44:51 40
12 Viveiro 34 11 6 17 47:52 39
13 Silva SD 34 9 12 13 40:48 39
14 Atletico Arteixo 34 9 11 14 40:42 38
15 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 10 7 17 29:45 37
16 Valladares 34 8 13 13 33:52 37
17 Villalonga 34 10 6 18 32:51 36
18 Betanzos CF 34 6 7 21 29:51 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2024/2025 (Play Offs)