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Gran Tarajal vs Tenerife B

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2023/2024 encounter between Gran Tarajal and Tenerife B promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Gran Tarajal averages 0.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded in recent matches. Tenerife B shows a form average of 1.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 0 wins for Gran Tarajal, 3 wins for Tenerife B, and 2 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 28.01.24 ended in a 0:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.23 for Gran Tarajal and 1.55 for Tenerife B, suggesting the primary value lies in the Tenerife B double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Gran Tarajal
27%
Draws
51%
Tenerife B
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Tenerife B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence
  • Gran Tarajal picked up more points recently compared to Tenerife B.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.23 vs 1.55 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Gran Tarajal Clean Sheet 15%
Tenerife B Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gran Tarajal Tenerife B
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 4 13
Draws 9 4
Losses 17 14
Goals Scored 0.57 1.71
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.68

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

28.01.24 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Gran Tarajal vs Tenerife B
0:1
10.09.23 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Tenerife B vs Gran Tarajal
1:1
26.02.23 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Gran Tarajal vs Tenerife B
0:1
23.10.22 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Tenerife B vs Gran Tarajal
2:1
20.03.22 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Tenerife B vs Gran Tarajal
0:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Gran Tarajal

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Tenerife B

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)
Attacking Style Keep the ball
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gran Tarajal Compare

Top Goalscorer N/A
0 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Tenerife B Compare

Top Goalscorer Toledo A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gran Tarajal 23 / 100
Tenerife B 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gran Tarajal Tenerife B

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tenerife B or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +57.1%
7.14
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12%
2.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Tenerife B will likely look to assert dominance early, testing the hosts' defensive structure.

Gran Tarajal 24%
Tenerife B 41%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Gran Tarajal will look to tighten their defensive lines to neutralize Tenerife B's early runs.

Gran Tarajal 21%
Tenerife B 54%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Tenerife B to mount counter-attacks, exploiting gaps as Gran Tarajal tries to push forward.

Gran Tarajal 22%
Tenerife B 51%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will see Tenerife B increase their pressing intensity in the opposition half.

Gran Tarajal 23%
Tenerife B 48%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for Gran Tarajal's defense, opening up opportunities for Tenerife B's forward line.

Gran Tarajal 20%
Tenerife B 56%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect Tenerife B to manage the closing stages, while Gran Tarajal searches for late drama.

Gran Tarajal 25%
Tenerife B 59%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gran Tarajal attacking → ← attacking Tenerife B

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gran Tarajal have found the net in 37% of their last 30 matches.

Tenerife B have conceded at least one goal in 81% of their last 31 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 1.40 goals per match.

Gran Tarajal remained undefeated in 1 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Tenerife B suffered defeat in 3 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 43
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tenerife B34248268:2280
2Lanzarote34229364:2875
3Union Sur Yaiza342111262:1974
4Las Palmas B34228474:2474
5Panaderia341510952:3955
6Arucas341114951:4147
7CD Santa Ursula3410131135:3843
8San Bartolome3410121243:4242
9Villa Santa Brigida349141141:3641
10Tamaraceite341181542:5641
11CD Marino341091542:5339
12CD Buzanada349121329:4239
13Herbania349111430:4638
14Ibarra34991635:4536
15Atletico Victoria34881833:5332
16Teror34682029:6726
17Gran Tarajal344121821:5424
18CD La Cuadra34642426:7222