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Grapiuna vs Bahia de Feira

Brazil Brazil

Baiano 2 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Grapiuna play Bahia de Feira in the Baiano 2 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Grapiuna averaged 0.97 goals scored and 2.07 conceded. Bahia de Feira averaged 1.83 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Grapiuna won 0, Bahia de Feira won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 31, 2025 ended 0:7. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Grapiuna and 1.69 for Bahia de Feira. This points to a Bahia de Feira double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Grapiuna
23%
Draws
50%
Bahia de Feira
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Bahia de Feira

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • Grapiuna picked up more points recently compared to Bahia de Feira.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Grapiuna Clean Sheet 13%
Bahia de Feira Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Grapiuna Bahia de Feira
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 7 11
Draws 6 9
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 0.97 1.83
Goals Conceded 2.07 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 31, 2025 Baiano 2
Grapiuna vs Bahia de Feira
0:7

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Grapiuna Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Bahia de Feira Compare

Top Goalscorer Arthur Martins
2 Goals
Assists Leader Junior S.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Grapiuna 27 / 100
Bahia de Feira 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Grapiuna Bahia de Feira

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Bahia de Feira or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +42%
5.26
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Grapiuna attacking → ← attacking Bahia de Feira

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Grapiuna scored in 52% of their last 29 games.

Bahia de Feira let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 7.00 goals.

Grapiuna went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Bahia de Feira lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 42
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
2.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Itabuna972020:723
2Bahia de Feira962128:520
3Fluminense de Feira962116:520
4Galicia943220:915
5EC Ypiranga934211:913
6Vitoria da Conquista83238:1111
7SSA924310:810
8Leonico821512:207
9Grapiuna90184:311
10Teixeira de Freitas90180:240