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Grassina vs Montespaccato

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2020/2021
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Marzierli E.
16' Event
Ansini D.
70' Event
Marzierli E.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E 2020/2021 game between Grassina and Montespaccato finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Grassina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Grassina
20%
Draws
40%
Montespaccato
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Grassina haven't matched Montespaccato's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E 2020/2021 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.8%
Grassina Clean Sheet 68%
Montespaccato Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Grassina Montespaccato
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 4 7
Draws 10 12
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 0.9 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.35
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2021 Serie D - Group E
Grassina vs Montespaccato
3:2
Mar 10, 2021 Serie D - Group E
Montespaccato vs Grassina
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Grassina Compare

Top Goalscorer Marzierli E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Diarrassouba A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Montespaccato Compare

Top Goalscorer Ansini D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Proietto F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.75

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Grassina 41 / 100
Montespaccato 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Grassina Montespaccato

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Grassina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Montespaccato conceded in 78% of 32 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Away concern: Montespaccato has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Grassina found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Grassina VS Montespaccato
0.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.33 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 75%
17% Over 2.5 38%
17% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Grassina

(Home)
20 Sept
Grassina
2 : 3
Scandicci
16 Sept
Prato
1 : 1
Grassina
13 Sept
Grassina
0 : 1
Flaminia
06 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
2 : 0
Grassina
13 Aug
Montevarchi
1 : 0
Grassina
Page 1 of 6

Montespaccato

(Away)
03 May
Montespaccato
2 : 4
Flaminia
26 Apr
Ischia
1 : 0
Montespaccato
19 Apr
Montespaccato
2 : 3
Latte Dolce
12 Apr
Valmontone
3 : 2
Montespaccato
02 Apr
Montespaccato
1 : 1
Atl. Lodigiani
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Montevarchi 34 21 8 5 68:32 71
2 Trastevere Calcio 34 17 9 8 56:38 60
3 Sporting Trestina 34 15 11 8 48:33 56
4 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 14 12 8 48:40 54
5 Siena 34 15 8 11 48:40 53
6 Follonica Gavorrano 34 14 9 11 48:37 51
7 Pianese 34 13 12 9 41:34 51
8 Lornano Badesse 34 13 9 12 51:44 48
9 Tiferno Lerchi 34 13 8 13 44:48 47
10 Cannara 34 12 11 11 41:48 47
11 Sangiovannese 34 12 9 13 42:43 45
12 Montespaccato 34 11 8 15 40:47 41
13 Ostiamare 34 8 15 11 50:54 39
14 Flaminia 34 9 12 13 44:57 39
15 Foligno 34 9 9 16 35:48 36
16 Scandicci 34 10 7 17 42:49 35
17 Grassina 34 6 12 16 32:52 30
18 UC Sinalunghese 34 4 11 19 24:58 23
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2020/2021 (Play Offs)