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Greece vs Bulgaria

World World

Friendly International 2025 Pankritio Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Greece play Bulgaria in the Friendly International 2025. Greece are favorites here. Recently, Greece averaged 1.77 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Bulgaria averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.77 conceded. In past meetings, Greece won 4, Bulgaria won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 10, 2025 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.94 for Greece and 1.69 for Bulgaria. This points to a Greece double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Greece
16%
Draws
27%
Bulgaria
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Greece

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence
  • Greece picked up more points recently compared to Bulgaria.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.94 vs 1.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Greece Clean Sheet 13%
Bulgaria Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Greece Bulgaria
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 6
Draws 4 10
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.77 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 2.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 10, 2025 Friendly International
Greece vs Bulgaria
4:0
Feb 18, 2004 Friendly International
Greece vs Bulgaria
2:0
Nov 16, 1999 Friendly International
Greece vs Bulgaria
1:0
Jun 26, 1994 World Championship
Bulgaria vs Greece
4:0
Nov 14, 1989 World Championship
Greece vs Bulgaria
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Greece Compare

Top Goalscorer Pelkas D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ioannidis F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Bulgaria Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Greece 54 / 100
Bulgaria 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Greece Bulgaria

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Greece Win (1)
Secondary Pick Greece & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +16.3%
2.04
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Greece attacking → ← attacking Bulgaria

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Greece scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Bulgaria let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Greece went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Bulgaria lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Friendly match. Both teams will likely test tactics and rotate squads rather than push for a result.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 28
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.63