Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Greece vs Italy

World World

Friendly International Pankritio Stadium, Heraklion
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Esposito F.
Assist: Ekhator J.
38'
Lipani L.
44'
Ahanor H.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International game between Greece and Italy finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Italy.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Greece
30%
Draws
52%
Italy
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Italy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Italy come out ahead of Greece on wins alone.
  • 52% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Friendly International form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Italy have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Greece Clean Sheet 10%
Italy Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Greece Italy
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 18
Draws 4 5
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 1.77 1.87
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 7, 2026 Friendly International
Greece vs Italy
0:1
Oct 12, 2019 Euro
Italy vs Greece
2:0
Jun 8, 2019 Euro
Greece vs Italy
0:3
Nov 19, 2008 Friendly International
Greece vs Italy
1:1
Oct 8, 1986 Friendly International
Italy vs Greece
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Greece Compare

Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Italy Compare

Top Goalscorer Esposito F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Greece 34 / 100
Italy 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Greece Italy

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Italy Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Greece scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Italy has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Greece went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Greece VS Italy
1.75 Goals Scored 2.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Greece

(Home)
07 Jun
Greece
0 : 1
Italy
04 Jun
Sweden
2 : 2
Greece
31 Mar
Hungary
0 : 0
Greece
27 Mar
Greece
0 : 1
Paraguay
18 Nov
Belarus
0 : 0
Greece
Page 1 of 6

Italy

(Away)
07 Jun
Greece
0 : 1
Italy
03 Jun
Luxembourg
0 : 1
Italy
31 Mar
Bosnia & Herzegovina
2 : 1
Italy
26 Mar
Italy
2 : 0
Northern Ireland
16 Nov
Italy
1 : 4
Norway
Page 1 of 6