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Gremio Coariense vs Atletico Rio Negro (Amazonas)

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Amazonense 2005
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gremio Coariense play Atletico Rio Negro (Amazonas) in the Campeonato Amazonense 2005. It looks like a close match. Recently, Gremio Coariense averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.52 conceded. Atletico Rio Negro (Amazonas) averaged 2 goals scored and 1.59 conceded. In past meetings, Gremio Coariense won 1, Atletico Rio Negro (Amazonas) won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 12, 2006 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.04 for Gremio Coariense and 0.99 for Atletico Rio Negro (Amazonas). This points to a Gremio Coariense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Gremio Coariense
23%
Draws
34%
Atletico Rio Negro (Amazonas)
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Gremio Coariense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Gremio Coariense picked up more points recently compared to Atletico Rio Negro (Amazonas).
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.04 vs 0.99 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
Gremio Coariense Clean Sheet 23%
Atletico Rio Negro (Amazonas) Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gremio Coariense Atletico Rio Negro (Amazonas)
Matches Played 25 39
Wins 15 17
Draws 4 9
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 2.2 2
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.59

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 12, 2006 Amazonense
Gremio Coariense vs Atletico Rio Negro (Amazonas)
0:2
Feb 7, 2006 Amazonense
Atletico Rio Negro (Amazonas) vs Gremio Coariense
0:0
Jan 23, 2005 Amazonense
Gremio Coariense vs Atletico Rio Negro (Amazonas)
3:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gremio Coariense 43 / 100
Atletico Rio Negro (Amazonas) 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gremio Coariense Atletico Rio Negro (Amazonas)

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Gremio Coariense or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.4%
1.92
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gremio Coariense attacking → ← attacking Atletico Rio Negro (Amazonas)

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gremio Coariense scored in 84% of their last 25 games.

Atletico Rio Negro (Amazonas) let in goals in 72% of their last 39 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Gremio Coariense went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Atletico Rio Negro (Amazonas) lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 60
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Gremio Coariense760124:1018
2Sao Raimundo AM751115:816
3Princesa do Solimoes750218:715
4Nacional-AM (Manaus)740318:1412
5Cliper73138:1510
6Atletico Rio Negro (Amazonas)721411:177
7Libermorro70256:172
8Sul America70163:151