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Gremio Prudente vs Bandeirante

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gremio Prudente play Bandeirante in the Paulista A3 2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Gremio Prudente averaged 1.1 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. Bandeirante averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. In past meetings, Gremio Prudente won 2, Bandeirante won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 10, 2024 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.75 for Gremio Prudente and 0.81 for Bandeirante. This points to a Gremio Prudente double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Gremio Prudente
28%
Draws
32%
Bandeirante
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Gremio Prudente

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Gremio Prudente picked up more points recently compared to Bandeirante.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.75 vs 0.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
Over 3.5 Goals 24%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Gremio Prudente Clean Sheet 26%
Bandeirante Clean Sheet 19%
First Half Goal 62%
Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gremio Prudente Bandeirante
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 8
Draws 15 9
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 1.1 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 10, 2024 Paulista A3
Bandeirante vs Gremio Prudente
3:2
Mar 1, 2023 Paulista A3
Gremio Prudente vs Bandeirante
2:3
Dec 13, 2020 Paulista A4
Bandeirante vs Gremio Prudente
2:0
Dec 10, 2020 Paulista A4
Gremio Prudente vs Bandeirante
1:0
Jul 11, 2015 Paulista A4
Gremio Prudente vs Bandeirante
6:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gremio Prudente 41 / 100
Bandeirante 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gremio Prudente Bandeirante

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Gremio Prudente or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.6%
2.94
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gremio Prudente attacking → ← attacking Bandeirante

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gremio Prudente scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Bandeirante let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Gremio Prudente went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Bandeirante lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 33
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.63
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Marilia1592425:1529
2Sao Jose EC1583413:1227
3Capivariano1576228:1127
4Gremio Prudente1573521:1624
5Desportivo1573514:924
6EC Sao Bernardo1571717:1622
7Uniao Suzano1563621:1821
8Matonense1562721:1820
9Bandeirante1555519:1520
10Red Bull Brasil1554624:2319
11Rio Preto EC1554615:2119
12Itapirense1547411:1719
13Votuporanguense1545614:1917
14Sertaozinho1551915:2616
15Barretos EC1544718:2916
16Audax-SP153398:1912