Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Gremio vs Santos

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Arena do Grêmio
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gremio play Santos in the Serie A Betano. It looks like a close match. Recently, Gremio averaged 1.29 goals scored and 0.86 conceded. Santos averaged 1.61 goals scored and 1.18 conceded. In past meetings, Gremio won 3, Santos won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 23, 2026 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Gremio and 1.69 for Santos. This points to a Gremio double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Gremio
30%
Draws
30%
Santos
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gremio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Gremio picked up more points recently compared to Santos.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
Gremio Clean Sheet 13%
Santos Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gremio Santos
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 12 10
Draws 9 10
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.29 1.61
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Serie A Betano
Gremio vs Santos
3:2
Oct 2, 2025 Serie A Betano
Santos vs Gremio
1:1
May 4, 2025 Serie A Betano
Gremio vs Santos
1:0
Aug 20, 2023 Serie A Betano
Santos vs Gremio
2:1
Apr 16, 2023 Serie A Betano
Gremio vs Santos
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gremio Compare

Top Goalscorer Carlos Vinicius
2 Goals
Assists Leader Tete
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Santos Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabriel Barbosa
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gremio 39 / 100
Santos 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gremio Santos

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Gremio or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gremio attacking → ← attacking Santos

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gremio scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Santos let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Gremio went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Santos lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 40
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 2.13
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Palmeiras18125130:1341
2Flamengo RJ17104331:1634
3Fluminense1894528:2331
4Athletico-PR1893624:1830
5Bragantino1892725:1929
6Bahia1775525:2326
7Coritiba1875624:2426
8Sao Paulo1874723:2025
9Atletico-MG1873822:2324
10Corinthians1866618:1924
11Cruzeiro1866624:2824
12Botafogo RJ1764731:3122
13Vitoria1764721:2522
14Internacional1856721:2221
15Santos1856726:2921
16Gremio1856720:2321
17Vasco1855822:2920
18Remo1846821:2918
19Mirassol1744918:2416
20Chapecoense-SC17161017:339