Sport Picks
Gremio vs Athletico-PR - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Brazil
Serie A Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre 
Match Events
23'
23'
Portilla J.
29'
29'
Enamorado J.
37'
37'
Leo Derik
AI Match Summary
The Serie A game between Gremio and Athletico-PR finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gremio.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
57%
20%
23%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gremio
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Athletico-PR come out ahead of Gremio on wins alone.
- 57% — that's where the model lands on Gremio taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Gremio Clean Sheet 20%
Athletico-PR Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Gremio | Athletico-PR |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 11 |
| Draws | 9 | 9 |
| Losses | 12 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.23 | 1.31 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.33 | 1.28 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 30, 2026 Serie A
Gremio vs Athletico-PR
2:0
May 2, 2026 Serie A
Athletico-PR vs Gremio
0:0
Aug 4, 2024 Serie A
Athletico-PR vs Gremio
0:2
Apr 17, 2024 Serie A
Gremio vs Athletico-PR
2:0
Oct 18, 2023 Serie A
Gremio vs Athletico-PR
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Gremio Compare
Top Goalscorer Marlon
1 Goals Assists Leader Balbuena F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6
Athletico-PR Compare
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Gremio 58 / 100
Athletico-PR 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Gremio Athletico-PR
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Gremio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Gremio found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).
Athletico-PR has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 1.80 goals.
Gremio has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Gremio VS Athletico-PR
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Gremio
(Home) 07 Nov
Atletico-MG
1 : 1 Gremio
04 Nov
Flamengo RJ
3 : 1 Gremio
01 Nov
Gremio
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
30 Oct
Gremio
2 : 0 Athletico-PR
26 Oct
Coritiba
0 : 1 Gremio
Page 1 of 6
01 Nov
Gremio
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
30 Oct
Gremio
2 : 0 Athletico-PR
18 Oct
Gremio
2 : 4 Cruzeiro
11 Oct
Gremio
1 : 1 Internacional
20 Sept
Gremio
0 : 0 Palmeiras
Page 1 of 4
Athletico-PR
(Away) 04 Nov
Athletico-PR
1 : 3 Vasco
30 Oct
Gremio
2 : 0 Athletico-PR
24 Oct
Vitoria
1 : 1 Athletico-PR
17 Oct
Athletico-PR
0 : 2 Palmeiras
12 Oct
Chapecoense-SC
1 : 4 Athletico-PR
Page 1 of 6
30 Oct
Gremio
2 : 0 Athletico-PR
24 Oct
Vitoria
1 : 1 Athletico-PR
12 Oct
Chapecoense-SC
1 : 4 Athletico-PR
12 Sept
Coritiba
3 : 3 Athletico-PR
06 Sept
Cruzeiro
3 : 1 Athletico-PR
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71:29 | 76 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 62:23 | 73 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55:48 | 60 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55:42 | 57 |
| 5 | Athletico-PR | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51:43 | 54 |
| 6 | Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 50:45 | 53 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 44:40 | 50 |
| 8 | Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 44:39 | 47 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50:49 | 47 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 39:39 | 44 |
| 11 | Botafogo RJ | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46:53 | 42 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40:51 | 42 |
| 13 | Vasco | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 43:50 | 41 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 39:48 | 40 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35:51 | 38 |
| 16 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38:42 | 38 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36:42 | 37 |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38:47 | 37 |
| 19 | Remo | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 37:57 | 29 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 33:68 | 21 |
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)
