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Gremio vs Bahia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre
Thu, Nov 19, 2026
VS
12:30 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gremio host Bahia in the Serie A. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Bahia have shipped 1.52 goals a game lately, while Gremio have conceded 1.28 and scored 1.22. Past meetings favor Bahia slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 17, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (1.44 - 1.31) back Bahia to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Gremio
20%
Draws
33%
Bahia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gremio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Gremio have managed 1.22 goals a game lately — Bahia are scoring more at 1.48.
  • Win probability leans Gremio's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Gremio Clean Sheet 18%
Bahia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gremio Bahia
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 10 10
Draws 10 9
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.22 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Serie A
Bahia vs Gremio
1:1
Oct 19, 2025 Serie A
Bahia vs Gremio
4:0
May 25, 2025 Serie A
Gremio vs Bahia
1:0
Aug 17, 2024 Serie A
Gremio vs Bahia
0:2
Apr 28, 2024 Serie A
Bahia vs Gremio
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gremio 67 / 100
Bahia 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gremio Bahia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gremio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Bahia conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Gremio scored in 78% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Gremio stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Gremio VS Bahia
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Gremio

(Home)
07 Nov
Atletico-MG
1 : 1
Gremio
04 Nov
Flamengo RJ
3 : 1
Gremio
01 Nov
Gremio
2 : 0
Atletico-MG
30 Oct
Gremio
2 : 0
Athletico-PR
26 Oct
Coritiba
0 : 1
Gremio
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Bahia

(Away)
06 Nov
Cruzeiro
3 : 2
Bahia
29 Oct
Bahia
3 : 2
Sao Paulo
25 Oct
Santos
1 : 1
Bahia
18 Oct
Bahia
0 : 3
Flamengo RJ
11 Oct
Bahia
1 : 0
Mirassol
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 34 23 7 4 71:29 76
2 Palmeiras 34 21 10 3 62:23 73
3 Cruzeiro 34 18 6 10 55:48 60
4 Fluminense 34 16 9 9 55:42 57
5 Athletico-PR 34 15 9 10 51:43 54
6 Bahia 34 14 11 9 50:45 53
7 Atletico-MG 34 14 8 12 44:40 50
8 Bragantino 34 13 8 13 44:39 47
9 Santos 34 12 11 11 50:49 47
10 Sao Paulo 34 12 8 14 39:39 44
11 Botafogo RJ 34 11 9 14 46:53 42
12 Coritiba 34 11 9 14 40:51 42
13 Vasco 33 11 8 14 43:50 41
14 Mirassol 34 10 10 14 39:48 40
15 Vitoria 34 10 8 16 35:51 38
16 Internacional 34 9 11 14 38:42 38
17 Corinthians 34 9 10 15 36:42 37
18 Gremio 34 9 10 15 38:47 37
19 Remo 34 6 11 17 37:57 29
20 Chapecoense-SC 33 4 9 20 33:68 21
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)