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Gremio vs Cruzeiro - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gremio host Cruzeiro in the Serie A Betano. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Gremio have averaged 1.24 scored and 1.06 conceded recently, against Cruzeiro's 1.47 scored and 0.97 conceded. Past meetings favor Cruzeiro slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 12, 2026, ending 3:1. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 1.44) point toward Cruzeiro. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Gremio
20%
Draws
65%
Cruzeiro
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Cruzeiro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Gremio haven't matched Cruzeiro's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Cruzeiro a 65% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Gremio Clean Sheet 16%
Cruzeiro Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gremio Cruzeiro
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 12 16
Draws 10 7
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 1.24 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.06 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Club Friendly
Gremio vs Cruzeiro
3:1
Apr 18, 2026 Serie A Betano
Cruzeiro vs Gremio
2:0
Nov 5, 2025 Serie A Betano
Gremio vs Cruzeiro
0:1
Jul 13, 2025 Serie A Betano
Cruzeiro vs Gremio
4:1
Nov 28, 2024 Serie A Betano
Cruzeiro vs Gremio
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gremio 19 / 100
Cruzeiro 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gremio Cruzeiro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cruzeiro Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gremio's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Cruzeiro's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Gremio went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Gremio VS Cruzeiro
1.13 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Gremio

(Home)
07 Oct
Remo
1 : 1
Gremio
20 Sept
Gremio
0 : 0
Palmeiras
16 Sept
Botafogo RJ
3 : 2
Gremio
12 Sept
Gremio
1 : 2
Vasco
07 Sept
Vitoria
1 : 0
Gremio
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Cruzeiro

(Away)
08 Oct
Cruzeiro
2 : 0
Sao Paulo
20 Sept
Vitoria
1 : 3
Cruzeiro
13 Sept
Santos
2 : 1
Cruzeiro
06 Sept
Cruzeiro
3 : 1
Athletico-PR
02 Sept
Atletico-MG
2 : 1
Cruzeiro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 29 18 7 4 57:25 61
2 Palmeiras 29 17 9 3 48:21 60
3 Fluminense 29 14 9 6 48:36 51
4 Athletico-PR 29 14 8 7 45:34 50
5 Cruzeiro 29 14 6 9 44:40 48
6 Bahia 29 12 10 7 43:36 46
7 Atletico-MG 29 12 8 9 39:34 44
8 Santos 29 11 9 9 45:43 42
9 Coritiba 29 10 8 11 37:47 38
10 Bragantino 29 10 7 12 34:33 37
11 Sao Paulo 29 10 6 13 33:34 36
12 Vitoria 29 10 6 13 32:42 36
13 Botafogo RJ 29 9 8 12 42:47 35
14 Vasco 28 9 7 12 36:42 34
15 Mirassol 29 8 9 12 34:43 33
16 Corinthians 29 8 8 13 30:34 32
17 Internacional 29 7 10 12 32:37 31
18 Gremio 29 7 9 13 31:39 30
19 Remo 29 5 9 15 33:48 24
20 Chapecoense-SC 28 3 9 16 29:57 18
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)